Local Owl said

Actually Mark, Vegas is in the business of taking in more money than they dish out. That is how those billion dollar casinos are built.

Posted On: May 31st 2017, 6:27 PM #369034

But people think Vegas is in the business of winning bets. Not so.  That's why they create a line to begin with, to make each side seem equal and to encourage betting on both sides.

They want equal bets on each side of the bet.  When you see the lines change, it isn't because one team got better or worse, it's because they do not have equal bets on each side and want to encourage bettors to equal it up.  

When you have equality on each side, the losing bets collected pays off the winning side.  The winning side cashes in their bets and Vegas takes a small fee from the winning side.  Vegas did not have to put up a single cent, they take a fee, and you multiply that small fee times billions of bets and you get billions of dollars without risk.

So when you hear someone say, "Vegas really took a bath on that bet," they did not lose a dime. Someone on the losing side of the bet took the bath for them!!

Vegas doesn't care if their lines are off or close, they only care about the equality in the bet.  In fact, they usually have lines with half points.  No one has ever won a football game by 6.5 points, ever.  The half points ensure there are no ties in the bet. No one gets paid if both sides of the bet tie and it's a push. That's bad for business.  It's a wasted bet for Vegas.

fauowl said

Local Owl said

Actually Mark, Vegas is in the business of taking in more money than they dish out. That is how those billion dollar casinos are built.

Posted On: May 31st 2017, 6:27 PM #369034

But people think Vegas is in the business of winning bets. Not so.  That's why they create a line to begin with, to make each side seem equal and to encourage betting on both sides.

They want equal bets on each side of the bet.  When you see the lines change, it isn't because one team got better or worse, it's because they do not have equal bets on each side and want to encourage bettors to equal it up.  

When you have equality on each side, the losing bets collected pays off the winning side.  The winning side cashes in their bets and Vegas takes a small fee from the winning side.  Vegas did not have to put up a single cent, they take a fee, and you multiply that small fee times billions of bets and you get billions of dollars without risk.

So when you hear someone say, "Vegas really took a bath on that bet," they did not lose a dime. Someone on the losing side of the bet took the bath for them!!

Vegas doesn't care if their lines are off or close, they only care about the equality in the bet.  In fact, they usually have lines with half points.  No one has ever won a football game by 6.5 points, ever.  The half points ensure there are no ties in the bet. No one gets paid if both sides of the bet tie and it's a push. That's bad for business.  It's a wasted bet for Vegas.

Posted On: May 31st 2017, 8:09 PM #369036

True but Vegas does take bloodbaths sometimes.  When odds makers mess up it hurts them, but they do have counter measures to slow the pain late. Like you said the people bet and vegas moves the lines  to even things out, but if the people money is too heavy the sharps late money might not be enough to move the money even late.
Vegas will also fix the odds for example FAU +21 should be a even or near even -105 bet and Navy -21 at -105 , but if that lines moves to 18 and they still don't feel the money is even they will change the payouts for example FAU+18 could be -170 and Navy -18 would be only +125. Instead of moving the line they just adjust the payouts to favor them.

I find betting G-5  football games to be more successful because i tend to find  bad spreads early on. G-5 football teams tend to be more up and down week to week and unless you are really paying attention.
Also bet big underdogs! I know someone who took every 20 or more point underdog in the 2016 season and hit 63 percent of games. It become to hard to predict what teams and coaches will do when they go up a few TD's late.

When I say taking in more than they dish out I'm talking about gambling, food,alcohol, shows, clothes,hotels,,events,everything that makes Vegas Vegas. My point was there is more to the business of Vegas then just gambling.

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  There is a reason we are 3 TD underdogs.  It's not because the odds makers are stupid.

Here is an article to actually educate yourself instead of listening to misinformed opinions.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2104561-inside-look-at-how-las-vegas-oddsmakers-come-up-with-college-football-spread

You dont like the 3 TD line…you have an avenue to pay your mortgage.  Bet on FAU to stop that Navy running attack.  Come sit next to me at the game so I can see your face when they eclipse the 500 yard mark.

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  There is a reason we are 3 TD underdogs.  It's not because the odds makers are stupid.

Here is an article to actually educate yourself instead of listening to misinformed opinions.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

Another fine graduate of Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People" Academy.

Dale Carnegie said

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  There is a reason we are 3 TD underdogs.  It's not because the odds makers are stupid.

Here is an article to actually educate yourself instead of listening to misinformed opinions.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

Another fine graduate of Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People" Academy.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 12:48 PM #369040

Right?

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

I'm confused.

I will take that bet all day long.   

I say they are wrong wayyyyyyy more often.  If they were right all the time, it would generate lots of ties in the bet or a push.  They want one side of the bet to lose.  If Navy beats FAU by 21 and 1000 people took Navy and gave the 21, and 1000 people took FAU and took the 21 points, Vegas is right but no one wins.  Or am I missing something? (which is entirely possible)

Dale Carnegie said

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  There is a reason we are 3 TD underdogs.  It's not because the odds makers are stupid.

Here is an article to actually educate yourself instead of listening to misinformed opinions.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

Another fine graduate of Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People" Academy.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 12:48 PM #369040

Dale Carnegie said

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  There is a reason we are 3 TD underdogs.  It's not because the odds makers are stupid.

Here is an article to actually educate yourself instead of listening to misinformed opinions.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

Another fine graduate of Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People" Academy.

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 12:48 PM #369040

You realize this is a message board for college football right?  I'm not trying to sell you patio furniture or get you to recognize me for a promotion.  I couldn't care less if you "liked" my profile on this message board.

Frankly, your ever chaning name and tone on this forum sucks.  But guess why I dont really care…its a chat forum.  Yep, a chat forum.

The opinions on lines not being a prediction of the results on the game is just wrong.  Why not come out with FAU giving Navy 21 points?  Because the people that set the odds for a living…think 21 is the number of points we will lose by.  And if you bet against them 100 times…you would lose more often than you win.  Promise.

Now, would you like me to structure this as a feel, felt and found statement so you and Dusky feel good about my post?  You've got it sport.

I empathize with your perception, based on a lot of data and studies I feel differently.  Can I show you some articles that may change your mind sir?  If you would be so kind.  Thank you.

fauowl said

walty12 said

The oddsmakers are right wayyyyyy more often than they are wrong.  

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 10:47 AM #369039

I'm confused.

I will take that bet all day long.   

I say they are wrong wayyyyyyy more often.  If they were right all the time, it would generate lots of ties in the bet or a push.  They want one side of the bet to lose.  If Navy beats FAU by 21 and 1000 people took Navy and gave the 21, and 1000 people took FAU and took the 21 points, Vegas is right but no one wins.  Or am I missing something? (which is entirely possible)

Posted On: Jun 2nd 2017, 1:53 PM #369044

By "right" I dont mean to the exact point.  I mean on the general spread of the game.

I would bet the number of times the oddsmakers are off by more than 14 points on thier spread to the final result is less than 10% of the time.

I bet on about 10-15 college football games every weekend and how close the odds makers are on so many games (that includes over unders) it makes me think sometimes every sports is fixed.