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Another breakdown on the game and spread...

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Another breakdown on the game and spread...



NCAAF Bowl - Florida Atlantic Owls (-3) vs. Memphis Tigers (+3)
By D.S. Williamson

The Florida Atlantic Owls travel to New Orleans to take on the Memphis Tigers in the New Orleans Bowl. Even though this sort of sounds like a game between two very good basketball teams, this is a game between two okay football teams.

If this were a basketball game, then handicapping it would be very easy. Because it is a NCAA football game, handicapping, although not easy, isnít exactly hard. I mean, the trends on this thing point to a clear winner against the spread.

The Florida Atlantic Owls are 4 and 9 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.

The Memphis Tigers are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games overall.

The Memphis Tigers are 15 and 7 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.

Although on paper these two teams appear very evenly matched, the Memphis Tigers actually on average rack up more overall yards than the Florida Atlantic Owls. Memphis also has a couple of nice wins versus Southern Mississippi and Marshall.

Florida Atlantic has played the tougher schedule, however. There is absolutely nobody on Memphisís schedule whoís even close to Florida. Even though the Owls lost to Florida by 39 points in that one, Florida is still Florida and itís impressive that the Owls managed to score 20 points at all against the Gators much less that they decided to put them on their schedule.

That makes Florida Atlantic a tough team in this one. What the key will be is whether or not the trends are a reflection of how good the Owls and Tigers play or whether they are a reflection of the difficulty of schedule.

If Florida Atlantic is 4 and 9 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, but the teams with winning records that they have faced are much better than the teams that the Tigers have faced, then the trend means that Florida Atlantic is probably the better team in this bowl game.

I tend to think that. Because Florida Atlantic has gone through the tougher regular season schedule, Iíve got to think that they will be more prepared to go into New Orleans and win this bowl game.

The BetUS NCAA line is Florida Atlantic Owls Ė 3 against the spread in the New Orleans Bowl.


I like the Owls to beat this spread.


GO OWLS!
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

My prediction is for more of a lopsided game!† Another difference will be turnovers in FAU's favor.† We will come out on top with 4 takeaways!


FAU† † † 52
Tigers† 28


GO OWLS
'91

* Sun Belt Champions & New Orleans Bowl Champions-2007
* Motor City Bowl/Little Ceasers Pizza Bowl Champions-2008
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

OWL4EVER said

My prediction is for more of a lopsided game!† Another difference will be turnovers in FAU's favor.† We will come out on top with 4 takeaways!


FAU† † † 52
Tigers† †28


GO OWLS
'91

I hope yoour right!

Nice avatar…kind of hard to tell but appears to be a decent size blue, correct?

GO OWLS!
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

Good article, I like the reasons he puts for us to cover the spread.† They make sense, and is probably what most of us were kind of thinking.
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

I really think we can detroy Memphis. Memphis is a passing team adnwe do well against the pass, not the run. I bet we win this game but 20+
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

I think the pressure is on us.† The #1 Belt team had better beat the #4 CUSA team.† The Belt team should be favored every year in this game.† I think us being favored by 3 is a lack of respect for our team.† We need to win BIG!
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

jdirico said

I really think we can detroy Memphis. Memphis is a passing team adnwe do well against the pass, not the run. I bet we win this game but 20+

I think we can destroy Memphis BUT what can you put in your plans against a team with a good senior passing quarterback with two speedy receivers who are 6 foot 8 inches and 6 foot 4 inches tall??

AND FAU's best pass-blockers Small and Polo are SMALL - each listed at 5 foot 10 inches.

Out of curiosity - what would a coach like Schnelly be able to do to work around that mismatch?

What would you do?† It seems tricky to me… I think FAU is capable of it BUT the question is WHAT DO TEAMS DO TO BEAT THE SIZE DIFFERENCE???

I mean, how can you intercept these guys except for praying for a nice low pass not soaring a foot above your head and into their arms?

??? ???
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

fauprowler said

jdirico said

I really think we can detroy Memphis. Memphis is a passing team adnwe do well against the pass, not the run. I bet we win this game but 20+

I think we can destroy Memphis BUT what can you put in your plans against a team with a good senior passing quarterback with two speedy receivers who are 6 foot 8 inches and 6 foot 4 inches tall??

AND FAU's best pass-blockers Small and Polo are SMALL - each listed at 5 foot 10 inches.

Out of curiosity - what would a coach like Schnelly be able to do to work around that mismatch?

What would you do?† It seems tricky to me… I think FAU is capable of it BUT the question is WHAT DO TEAMS DO TO BEAT THE SIZE DIFFERENCE???

I mean, how can you intercept these guys except for praying for a nice low pass not soaring a foot above your head and into their arms?

??? ???

Pressure on their QB would be a place to start. Not that we have alot of sacks, but a good pass defense starts with pressure on the QB.
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

We really only destroyed FIU, we had big leads on Troy and Minnesota not that I need to tell all you guys that lol but I don't see us blowing them out. My prediction is that I say we get out to a 14 pt lead in the 2nd half but Memphis cuts it to within 4 after a TD and FG. I can see a similar type game to the one we played against Troy. I would love to see us crush them but that won't happen

My two favorite teams are FAU, and who ever is beating FIU!
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Re: Another breakdown on the game and spread...

Jab979 said

We really only destroyed FIU, we had big leads on Troy and Minnesota not that I need to tell all you guys that lol but I don't see us blowing them out.

You're probably right unless FAU wants to make a statement.

I'm not sure why we lose these big leads exactly… if it's because of the difference in talent between the 1st and 2nd string defenders or just our 1st string guys get too comfortable/cocky


P.S. I don't respond to guest posts. All guests are encouraged to register with the site.
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