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Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

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Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

Race for the Sun Belt Title and the New Orleans Bowl
This is pretty damn complex

Arkansas State (4-5, 2-2) - Still in the running.  They need to beat Troy, NT and FAU .  They also need Troy to beat ULL.  The title would be shared with Troy but ASU would go to New Orleans.

Florida Atlantic (5-5, 3-2) - Long shot.  Needs to win final 2 games against ASU and FIU.  Need ULL to beat Troy, ASU to beat Troy, AND ULL to lose to MTSU.  In that scenario we would share the title with ULL but go to New Orleans on the tie-break.  The other possibility is for Troy to beat ULL, then lose to ASU.  This would give us a shared title with Troy but they would go to New Orleans (reverse 2007).

Florida International (4-5, 3-2)- Since FIU lose to both frontrunners, the best they can do is a shared title while not going to New Orleans.  They can share it with either ULL or Troy, but need both of those teams to lose their final games against MTSU and ASU, respectively.

Troy (6-4, 4-1)- Can win the title outright if they beat ULL and ASU, they control their own destiny.

University of Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5, 4-1)-Also in control of their own destiny.  Beating Troy is a priority.


Race for an Alternate Bowl
Independence Bowl Big 12 #7 v. SEC 6/7/8
For the Big 12 slot we got some help this weekend with losses from Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Colorado.  That knocks 2 teams out and pushes Colorado away from a bowl to 5-6.  As long as the Big 12 sends a team to both the National Championship and the Fiesta Bowl this slot will be open if Colorado loses its last game at Nebraska.  So this spot is looking pretty good.

On the SEC side they now have 8 bowl-eligible teams.  If the SEC goes to the National Championship they may have trouble filling this.  The paradox is that if the Big 12 is able to send a team the SEC will likely prioritize this game whereas if the Big 12 cannot (ie a Sun Belt team goes) the SEC will probably abandon this bowl.

Independence Big 12 spot looks promising.

Papa Johns Bowl Big East 4/5 v. SEC 9
The Big East currently has 5 teams eligible + Notre Dame, so essentially 6.  Now we can hope that Notre Dame goes for a non Big East bowl and gets out of the Big East pool…that would be nice.  Either way it seems that they will fill this bowl.  The Big East is a mess so I can't really tell who it may be, but USF, Louisville, Rutgers, and Connecticut are likely candidates. No chance for this spot.

On the SEC side, they would need 10 eligible teams (if they go to the NC game) to fill this spot.  They are at 8 right now with 2 teams left available, Auburn and Arkansas.  All we need is 1/2 of these teams to not become eligible and this spot is for the Sun Belt.  Auburn is against Alabama next and Arkansas has Mississippi State and LSU.  This spot looks very promising.

Papa Johns SEC slot looks promising

St. Pete Bowl Big East 6 v. CUSA
Unfortunately for the Sun Belt, we cannot keep the Big East from having 6 eligible teams.  With USF's poor performance against Rutgers this weekend we have a situation where Louisville and Rutgers are both at 5-5 and each still has to play each other.  One will become eligible and go to the St. Pete Bowl.

Now things get complex.  Since CUSA does not assign a rank for the team they intend to send here, we have a weird situation.  CUSA has 6 bowl tie-ins and 4 teams currently eligible.  There is likely to be some shakeups but St. Pete may become a desirable bowl if the Big 12 and SEC fail to meet their down-ticket bowl tie-ins.  Our best bet is to root against all cusp, precipice, and wandering CUSA teams.

St. Pete bowl looks difficult

Race for an At-Large Bowl
There are 68 slots for bowl-eligible teams.  As of Saturday there are 58 bowl-eligible teams aka IN.  30 teams are now ineligible aka OUT.  14 teams are 1 game away from becoming bowl-eligible and more than 1 game from becoming ineligible (5-5 or 5-4 for example aka Cusp).  6 team are at the tipping point of 5-6 and 8 are at the precipice of only 1 game from ineligibility (4-6 for example aka Precipice).  The remaining 3 are at 4-5 and need 2 wins to get in and 2 loses to fall out aka Wandering. So for an at large spot we need to root against other cusp teams including ULL as well as rooting against precipice and wandering teams.  If thinking as a conference we should root for ULL and FAU (cusp), FIU and ASU (wandering), and MTSU (precipice) while rooting against all others.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

Are you in the Analytics space professionally? This is great stuff, thanks for taking the time to do it for us.
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

Great stuff, SeminOwl2006!!  Very complex and detailed information, but in portrays the possibilities, so we can follow the remaining games with a smarter "rooting" point of view.  Thanks for your time.
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

I'll come up with a SunBelt/FAU wishlist later in the week so that we know exactly which games we need to be paying attention to.  The good news is that there is a good chance for 3 teams to go to bowls.  The bad news is that it may leave out 2 bowl-eligible Sun Belt teams.  From what I can tell the it will likely be:

Troy
ULL
and then one of the following
FAU/FIU/ASU

If any of those three teams wins out they should go to a bowl.  If the conference gets lucky and St. Pete opens up we might get 2 out of 3 to bowls for a grand total of 4 Sun Belt bowls.  This would be a coup for the conference, especially against the naysayers that demanded automatic tie-ins.  To go from 1 bowl to 4 would be huge, but 3 is alot more likely.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

Thanks for doing this.

It looks like our best hope is for the Big XII and SEC to both send a team to the national championship. That would open up two potential slots… The BIG XII Independance Bowl spot and the SEC PapaJohns Bowl.

right?

I'm a proud lifetime member of the FAU National Alumni Association. Are you a member? Join now at www.faualumni.org.
Tradition in the Making, One Alum at a Time…
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

Ya know what… if Mississippi State can beat Arkansas…. 11/29 weekend will be huge for us:
Arkansas (would be 5-6) and Auburn (5-6) play LSU and Alabama respectivly. If both of them lose, then SEC only has 7 bowl eligible teams.

THEN… in a miracle…

Alabama and/or Florida go to National Championship, thus not filling their "lower bowls" and leaving three open slots…..

Or am I reading this wrong?

Bottom Line: FAU has to win out and watch on Thanksgiving Weekend

I'm a proud lifetime member of the FAU National Alumni Association. Are you a member? Join now at www.faualumni.org.
Tradition in the Making, One Alum at a Time…
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Re: Bowl Scenarios - 11/16/08

SEC currently has 8 teams eligible.  If they go to a national championship game then all the spots move up.  They have 9 usual tie-ins, and 10 with the NC.  Since the SEC sends their #9 seed to the Papa Johns normally, it would actually go to a #10 seed if they have a NC contender.  We only need 1 of the remaining 2 SEC teams to fail in order for the Belt to get into the Papa Johns Bowl.


smittysahoot said

Ya know what… if Mississippi State can beat Arkansas…. 11/29 weekend will be huge for us:
Arkansas (would be 5-6) and Auburn (5-6) play LSU and Alabama respectivly. If both of them lose, then SEC only has 7 bowl eligible teams.

Actually they already have 8 bowl-eligible thanks to Kentucky sucking and losing to Vanderbilt.  Nonetheless, the shot for the Papa Johns is very good indeed.  Out of 3 games to play, we only need 1 to go against Auburn/Arkansas.  Not bad odds.  If Mississippi State beats Arkansas, the Belt will automatically have a spot in the Papa Johns, regardless of what happens on Thanksgiving.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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