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Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

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Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

Okay gang, it’s time to see how last week’s scenarios have changed with Saturday’s games.

Sun Belt Conference Title / New Orleans Bowl Scenarios

FAU beat North Texas and is now only two wins from bowl eligibility but really three wins from a realistic shot at a berth.  The Owls convincing victory over the UNT Mean Green should inject a much needed boost to the confidence issues that FAU seems to have been battling all seasons.  If they can bring that 2007 swagger with them to Lockhart next Saturday, it should go a long way toward their most important hurdle of the season to date.  Projected final regular season record 7-5 (5-2) with tie-breaker over ASU & ULL.

Troy’s win against Western Kentucky on Saturday really did nothing other than assure their bowl eligibility.  Currently at 6-3 (4-1), we still need the Trojans to lose to both ULL and ASU but those games will have to wait until they return from LSU next Saturday.  Now I never wish injuries on anyone, especially a team that has already been decimated, so I just hope they can stay healthy in Baton Rouge.  They have already had more than their share but three straight losses would almost certainly dash any bowl hopes.  Unfortunately for them, this is exactly what the Owls need in order to recover a share of the Sun Belt title.  Projected final regular season record 6-6 (4-3) with tie-breaker over FIU.

Louisiana-Lafayette’s loss to UTEP on Saturday did little to affect our scenarios other than prolong their eventual eligibility.  They are headed to South Florida at the worst possible time for the Cajuns as FAU is riding a three-game winning streak and are playing arguably their best football of the year.  The Owls obviously need the win here which will create the showdown the following against Troy.  Each would have one conference loss making that game even more important.  We’ll need ULL to prevail over Troy but stumble on 12/03 at home against MTSU.  Projected final regular season record 7-5 (5-2) with tie-breaker over ASU.

Arkansas State took a hit on Saturday with their dramatic loss to FIU in Miami.  Currently at 4-5 (2-2), the Red Wolves still have to win two out of their remaining games.  The difference now is that the pool of available wins just got much stronger with FAU headed to Jonesboro and back-to-back road games at Troy and North Texas to finish up the regular season.  FAU has to beat ASU, who will have plenty of rest with an open week this Saturday, but will be pulling for the Red Wolves to upset Troy in Troy.  The game in Denton in inconsequential to the Owls bowl scenarios but would provide for an additional bowl eligible team from the Sun Belt.  Projected final regular season record 6-6 (4-3) with tie-breaker over Troy.

FIU’s stock is up following Saturday’s shocker over Arkansas State. The Golden Panthers are currently 4-5 (3-2) and are alone in third place in the conference standings.  The Sun Belt Conference as a whole truly needs FIU to be better and so far this season, they have obliged.  The new found energy, youth and discipline have transformed the former laugher to a real threat week in and week out.  Home wins against ULM on 11/22 and WKU on 12/06 would guarantee another SBC bowl eligible team.  However, most obviously, FAU has to beat the Golden Panthers at Dolphin Stadium on 11/29.  Projected final regular season record 6-6 (4-3) with tie-breaker over ASU.

Non-Conference / At-large Bowl Bid Scenarios

Alabama and Florida both won and seem to be headed for a clash in the SEC Championship on 12/06.  If both teams win out and meet with UF at 11-1 and Alabama at 12-0, as hard as it may be, I’ll be cheering for the Gators because a one-loss Crimson Tide team will still be a lock for a BCS at-large while a 2-loss Florida team probably won’t.  With two SEC teams in the BCS mix and eight more non-BCS bowl tie-ins, the Southeastern Conference will most likely be deficient in meeting their numbers this season.  While only Tennessee has been mathematically eliminated from bowl eligibility, six others (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU) have already reached the 6-win minimum required for a bowl bid.  That leaves Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi.

Vanderbilt (5-4) – needs one win; 11/15 @ Kentucky, 11/22 vs. Tennessee, 11/29 @ Wake Forest.  A home win over the Vols will get Vandy their bowl eligibility.
Mississippi (5-4) – needs one win; 11/15 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 11/21 @ LSU, 11/28 vs. Mississippi State.  A home win over either ULM or the Bulldogs would get it done for the Rebels.
Auburn (5-5) - likely losses to Georgia and Alabama would eliminate the Tigers.
Arkansas (4-6) - a win @ Mississippi State and a loss against LSU would leave the Razorbacks one game shy of the necessary 6-6 record.
Mississippi State (3-6) – can’t afford a single loss; 11/15 @ Alabama, 11/22 vs. Arkansas, 11/29 @ Mississippi remaining. The Bulldogs are very unlikely to win out.

The Big XII has eight bowl tie-ins, nine if Tech is in the national championship game, and with seven teams already qualified and Colorado one win away, they could be short of eligible teams as well.  Out of Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas, two of these teams should be able to finish in the BCS mix.  That would mean that the Sun Belt could replace the Big XII in the Independence Bowl if Tech is BCS #1 or #2 and they fail to qualify eight teams.

The Big East
has 7 bowl tie-ins with their champion getting an automatic bid to the BCS.  Pretty bad considering the top ranked Big East team currently isn’t even in the top 25 since WVU lost to Cincinnati on Saturday.  Regardless, they currently have 5 bowl eligible teams with Louisville one win away and Rutgers 2 wins away.  Syracuse has been eliminated with seven losses.  Louisville has 11/14 vs. Cincinnati, 11/22 vs. West Virginia, 11/29 @ Rutgers.  Tough but, needing only one win out of three games remaining, very possible.  Rutgers has 11/15 @ South Florida, 11/22 vs. Army, 11/29 vs. Louisville.  Two wins out of three could be too tough a task for a very mediocre Scarlet Knight team.

If the Owls handle their business and win out, but don’t get the New Orleans Bowl bid, the St. Petersburg Bowl would be the most attractive to FAU and likewise, FAU should be the most attractive to the St. Petersburg Bowl committee.  Since we are close to the Tampa area, FAU should travel better to the west coast than other potential SBC representatives.

Please keep in mind that there is also the chance that other bowls across the country may have tie-ins with conferences that can’t meet their eligibility limits.  In this case, bowl committees can not, under any circumstances, choose a 6-6 at large team before a 7-5 at large.  Therefore, there are several other bowls that could come knocking, like they have done for Troy and Middle Tennessee State in recent years.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - C-USA #5 vs. Sun Belt Champion - New Orleans Bowl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Independence Bowl - Big XII #7 vs. SEC #6/7/8 - AdvoCare V100 Bowl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
PapaJohns.com Bowl - Big East #4/5 vs. SEC #9 - BBVA Compass Bowl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
St. Petersburg Bowl - Big East #6 vs. C-USA - Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

is your name supposed to be owlsinsider?

or is "indider" a word in swahili?




<br>The one and only, world famous checklist signature is back!
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

I havent spent any time trying to figure all of this out and not tryng to dispute anything, but i am pretty sure Ted Hutton said we have no chance unless we get an at large bid...
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

Florida_Owl said

I havent spent any time trying to figure all of this out and not tryng to dispute anything, but i am pretty sure Ted Hutton said we have no chance unless we get an at large bid…

amen


<br>The one and only, world famous checklist signature is back!
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

yah we need a lot of luck to get an at large bid.....while the attendance has been higher i cants see someone picking us over a larger program with the same record.
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

ohh yah and we should just worry about winning out before we start saying we need this and this to happen.....just winning out will be a challenge with the teams we have left.
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

Hey…I did this over in the Sun Belt forum.

The good thing about the new tie-ins is that we don't need an "at-large" per say.  If the conference can't fill their obligations, the Sun Belt is automatic, regardless of record (as long as its 6-6).  So we could have 4 possible bowls as a conference, and with the SEC and Big12 doing well and the Big East doing decent but with a possible opening, the chances are not that bad.

It may not even be the traditional champion going to New Orleans…that might be for someone else since the Conference will want to send the best team to face a major conference opponent.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

owl09 said

is your name supposed to be owlsinsider?

or is "indider" a word in swahili?

Wasn't OwlInsider banned for telling us we didn't know anything over and over?

Or was that another guy?

P.S. I don't respond to guest posts. All guests are encouraged to register with the site.
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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

regardless of screenname,  the person put alot of time into this post…

appreciate the efforts…just disappointed we cant win the conference out right to represent…and because of that MTSU fiasco… >:(


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Re: Bowl Scenarios As of 11/09/08

SeminOWL2006 said

Hey…I did this over in the Sun Belt forum.

The good thing about the new tie-ins is that we don't need an "at-large" per say.  If the conference can't fill their obligations, the Sun Belt is automatic, regardless of record (as long as its 6-6).  So we could have 4 possible bowls as a conference, and with the SEC and Big12 doing well and the Big East doing decent but with a possible opening, the chances are not that bad.

It may not even be the traditional champion going to New Orleans…that might be for someone else since the Conference will want to send the best team to face a major conference opponent.

I'm pretty sure that the SBC champion HAS TO go to the NO Bowl unless invited to a BCS bowl. That is our main tie in the winner of our conference goes to that bowl game no matter what unless they are in a BCS bowl game

My two favorite teams are FAU, and who ever is beating FIU!
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