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College Football Poll

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Re: College Football Poll

College Football Poll

Florida_Owl said

This is a betting site…….

Fun is fun, but these guys want your $$$…….

This is the first time in 10 years of existence that I have seen a message board post refer to us a "betting" site.
Why would you say that? Where do we ask for your money?

I can assure you CollegeFootballPoll.com is NOT a betting site. Please do not disparage us as something we are not.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/weekly_picks_disclaimer.html
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/contact_us.html

We are a legitimate independent college football site. The links above will give you more info and background.

The FAU media guide/programs reference the rankings on our site. We had an on-field photographer at every FAU game last year, and we did a feature story on the USF/FAU game.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/games_recap_100407.html

Thank you.




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Re: College Football Poll

The nice thing is that FAU has always finished better than they have predicted. Could that mean 11-1 this year??  ;D

GO OWLS!!!

2017 and 2019 Conference USA Champions
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Re: College Football Poll

..fanatic said

Florida_Owl said

This is a betting site…….

Fun is fun, but these guys want your $$$…….

This is the first time in 10 years of existence that I have seen a message board post refer to us a "betting" site.
Why would you say that? Where do we ask for your money?

I can assure you CollegeFootballPoll.com is NOT a betting site. Please do not disparage us as something we are not.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/weekly_picks_disclaimer.html
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/contact_us.html

We are a legitimate independent college football site. The links above will give you more info and background.

The FAU media guide/programs reference the rankings on our site. We had an on-field photographer at every FAU game last year, and we did a feature story on the USF/FAU game.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/games_recap_100407.html

Thank you.





Sorry, ididnt take them time to fully explore your site…but you have a cliam on the home page that your picks are "accurate"…usually that is indicitave of a betting service…

So, if that is the case, how do you folks fund your site - ie "make money"??
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Re: College Football Poll

Florida_Owl said


Sorry, ididnt take them time to fully explore your site…but you have a cliam on the home page that your picks are "accurate"…usually that is indicitave of a betting service…

So, if that is the case, how do you folks fund your site - ie "make money"??

Solely through advertising.  We are part of the Fantasy Players Network.
http://www.fantasyplayers.com/partners

We are also part of a group of 50 non-gambling sites whose computer rankings are tracked by the independent Prediction Tracker. BCS rankers from Massey, Sagarin, etc., are also part of that same group. And our rankings appear at Massey's comparison website.

The purpose of tracking picks, giving spreads, etc, is to simply track the reliability of the rankings.  Everyone talks about spreads - that doesn't mean they gamble. It's a way of simply qualifying expectations of how one team should do against another.

What I am most proud about is the fact that the Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR) has picked at least one of the national title game contestants 11 times in its 15-year history (1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007). The team it picked to win the title has played in the title game seven times (1993, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005), and won the title three times (1993, 1998, 1999).

Like anything or anyone, it has some glaring failures. But overall, it has picked nearly 75% of all games correctly since its inception in 1993.

In short, all of the information on the site does this:
We provide precise forecasts.
We track the results as a barometer for that forecasting accuracy.
We use a Vegas website to track our picks against the set spreads, but only because you need legitimate odds sources test your picks against.

You want to bet with it - it's your call. (not advised or desired)
You want to use it for Fantasy Football - it's your call. (better)
You want to simply see a different take on how the teams stack up - it's your call, and the reason we exist.
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Re: College Football Poll

Interesting…

Do you incorporate Phil Steele's info into your forecasts?  I dont recall seeing a reference on the site, and you didnt mention above…just curious…….

Also, just for fun, how is the FAU vs Texas match-up forecast to end up ;D

At 75%, i am very curious on this one…….

(firewall on CPU, so can't visit site right now)
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Re: College Football Poll

Florida_Owl said

Interesting…

Do you incorporate Phil Steele's info into your forecasts?  I dont recall seeing a reference on the site, and you didnt mention above…just curious…….

Also, just for fun, how is the FAU vs Texas match-up forecast to end up ;D

At 75%, i am very curious on this one…….

(firewall on CPU, so can't visit site right now)

No one else's methods or results are used to determine our rankings and picks. The Congrove Computer Rankings have its' own formula. No legitmate computer rankings borrows from anyone's results. The goal is to develop a formula, from scratch, using data that doesn't lead to bias, against or for, any team, region or conference.

As for the Texas-FAU match, the computer picks Texas by 13.84. Admittedly, that's a surprisingly low margin. Unfortunately, I think double that is probably more accurate. The Owls are strong for the Sun Belt, but they are not near where they need to be to compete with the upper echelon teams of the major conferences. Hopefully, that will come.

The issue with college football is that any one team only plays 10% of the universe of teams. Since you have to look at teams based on the bulk, or average of its opponents, a spread is nearly impossible to set when a team plays an unusually strong or weak opponent. Picking the winner becomes easier, picking the margin is much tougher.

Most people think they can look at FAU's power rating or preseason ranking, for instance, and say that they would lose to Georgia by "x" amount. But, but if Georgia was on the schedule, the numbers would change for both teams and the resulting spread would be different. In short, you can't guage the power of a team by measuring against non-existant opponents. (Hard data, not theoretical).

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Re: College Football Poll

..fanatic said

No one else's methods or results are used to determine our rankings and picks. The Congrove Computer Rankings have its' own formula. No legitmate computer rankings borrows from anyone's results. The goal is to develop a formula, from scratch, using data that doesn't lead to bias, against or for, any team, region or conference.

As for the Texas-FAU match, the computer picks Texas by 13.84. Admittedly, that's a surprisingly low margin. Unfortunately, I think double that is probably more accurate. The Owls are strong for the Sun Belt, but they are not near where they need to be to compete with the upper echelon teams of the major conferences. Hopefully, that will come.

The issue with college football is that any one team only plays 10% of the universe of teams. Since you have to look at teams based on the bulk, or average of its opponents, a spread is nearly impossible to set when a team plays an unusually strong or weak opponent. Picking the winner becomes easier, picking the margin is much tougher.

Most people think they can look at FAU's power rating or preseason ranking, for instance, and say that they would lose to Georgia by "x" amount. But, but if Georgia was on the schedule, the numbers would change for both teams and the resulting spread would be different. In short, you can't guage the power of a team by measuring against non-existant opponents. (Hard data, not theoretical).

I dont know what his percentile of accuracy is but it is way up there…just was curious…he has his own unique formulae as well…

On Texas:

I agree with you in that there is a disparage between the overall talent levels of the two teams head to head…but athletically only…not "smarts".

However, i dont believe they are that good (more than 17 points)…and i also believe that due to a number of logistcial components (key losses, OC change, poor secondary) that this is THE YEAR a mid major with a good passing game can wax them…why not us? We have the passing game to do it.

If we play error free ball and capitolize on a turnover or two, we win; and the "shock and awe" will be massive in Austin.  You will be able to hear a pin drop in the stadium, as the clock hits zero, in the fourth quarter.


Ill check more into your site later…i am also interested to see where the SEC, etc is stacking up this year…im from Knoxville and follow the Vols too :)

(But HATE the gators!)



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Re: College Football Poll

Phil Steele, keep in mind, is a handicapper. His uses a vast assortment of methods to compile his rankings and not without bias.
That's not to diminish him or his accuracy, but his methods are not "pure". We stack up nicely against anyone in our results over 15 seasons.

Please do check us out thoroughly. Once you see the over-all picture of what we do, I think you'll like us. We do more to give users an untarnished view of our hits and misses than any other site I've seen - transparency is a major goal. Saying something is one thing  ;) - proving it is another.  :)
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Re: College Football Poll

Will do!
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Re: College Football Poll

..fanatic said

Phil Steele, keep in mind, is a handicapper. His uses a vast assortment of methods to compile his rankings and not without bias.
That's not to diminish him or his accuracy, but his methods are not "pure". We stack up nicely against anyone in our results over 15 seasons.

Please do check us out thoroughly. Once you see the over-all picture of what we do, I think you'll like us. We do more to give users an untarnished view of our hits and misses than any other site I've seen - transparency is a major goal. Saying something is one thing  ;) - proving it is another.  :)

…fanatic,

thanks for the expalantion and all the information.  I have saved your site and will to refer to often throughout the season to see how you guys stack up.  I am not into fantasy football (just don't have the time) but I will include in my assumptions for other reasons if it looks good. ;)

GO OWLS!
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