Let's say we win out to finish at 6-6, 5-2.
Troy loses to us, beats ASU and MTSU, but then loses to FIU. That makes them also 6-6, 5-2.
MTSU loses to ASU, South Carolina, and to Troy. The South Carolina game is key, because that would be their seventh win (see below). They would finish 6-6, 5-2 as well.
ASU beats MTSU but loses to Troy and ULL, which gives them three conf losses, eliminating them from consideration. The reason we don't want them to get to 5-2 also, is because they would then have seven wins (see below).
So that leaves us, MTSU and Troy, all at 6-6, 5-2. I'm going to say that ULL would lose one of their final four games, eliminating them also, although they finished pretty strong last year, so who knows. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, as they would have 8 wins if that was the case, eliminating us.
I asked on the Belt Board yesterday what the tiebreaker is for three or more teams and the first thing I was told was: "First you eliminate teams without 7 or more wins." Interestingly, none of those three teams would have 7 wins. So on to the next tiebreaker.
The next tiebreaker would be head-to-head between those three teams, which would be 1-1 for all three of us. So on to the next tiebreaker.
According to my Belt Board source: "The next step is you compare records against each team in the conference starting at the first position in the standings below the tie and proceeding downward until you can eliminate one or more teams. Once you eliminate a team if tied teams remain, you restart the tiebreakers back at square one."
Obviously, ASU or ULL would be the next best team at 4-3. Against ASU, we'd be 1-0 and so would Troy, so that would eliminate MTSU. We win the head-to-head battle against Troy, so we win!
If ULL does manage to get to 4-3, which is a distinct possibility, we are 0-1 against them, while MTSU and Troy both beat them, eliminating us.
So there is still a chance!!