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Observations Part 2

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 I hope I'm wrong but I think UCF is gonna give us a beat down. They have a very good team and we play in CUSA. They are by far the best team in the state.

Go Owls!
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They may CB, but their D is not strong at all and now has lost a game to work on improving it. High scoring game in the 40's!
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I know they haven't played anybody yet, but they are currently tied for 7th in the country giving up 8.5 points per game.  One of those games is against FCS SC State, so statistically it will be interesting to compare their first 2 games against what FAU looks like after this weekend (throwing out OU).  I think they would have beaten UNC-CHeat like a drum this weekend had they played, making these stats look better.  And yes - I am from NC (so you either love or hate the Tarholes - guess which side I fall on???).

UCF is 2-0 against UConn (horrible) and SC State (severely over-matched FCS squad)
94 points for - 17 points against / 1218 yards for (606 passing, 612 rushing) - 743 yards against (346 passing, 397 rushing)

FAU ***should be*** 2-0 against AF (not really that good) and BC (hopefully a severely over-matched FCS squad)
Stats to be padded… I mean calculated after this weekend

The one thing UCF's defensive stats show is that they are giving up nearly 200 yards rushing per game to 2 very bad football teams (they gave up nearly 500 total yards to UConn - who just got rolled by Boise 62-7).  I know quite a bit of that is probably garbage-time, but still.  The one thing their offense shows is what we already know - you better be ready for a track meet, and you better tackle (hard to be more balanced than that).

FAU is going to seriously have their hands full, and this game might be more about how the team shows up and competes versus their chances to win the game.  You always want to have a puncher's chance, but the Owls will have to figure their running game out for the UCF game.
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What's funny is that with all these great underclassmen I never thought about 2019 until recently. I'd always been paranoid that Lane wouldn't be here. After last week against AF, and the emergence of so many underclassmen, I'm pumped up about 2019. We could still have: Robison, Motor (and the backups), all the receivers (Durante, Willie, Harrison, Holmes), 2 returning OL starters and a ton of backups. And we still will have important defenders like Rashad Smith. Our offense loses no skill players if everyone stays. And there's a ton of returning OL.
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jgf2017 said

What's funny is that with all these great underclassmen I never thought about 2019 until recently. I'd always been paranoid that Lane wouldn't be here. After last week against AF, and the emergence of so many underclassmen, I'm pumped up about 2019. We could still have: Robison, Motor (and the backups), all the receivers (Durante, Willie, Harrison, Holmes), 2 returning OL starters and a ton of backups. And we still will have important defenders like Rashad Smith. Our offense loses no skill players if everyone stays. And there's a ton of returning OL.
Posted On: Sep 12th 2018, 11:55 PM #380658

Also Kyle Davis (WR) from Auburn would be eligible. Assuming Motor comes back for his senior year, Kiff stays, our offense would be P5 level – just have to make sure we have a good line.
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jgf2017 said

What's funny is that with all these great underclassmen I never thought about 2019 until recently. I'd always been paranoid that Lane wouldn't be here. After last week against AF, and the emergence of so many underclassmen, I'm pumped up about 2019. We could still have: Robison, Motor (and the backups), all the receivers (Durante, Willie, Harrison, Holmes), 2 returning OL starters and a ton of backups. And we still will have important defenders like Rashad Smith. Our offense loses no skill players if everyone stays. And there's a ton of returning OL.
Posted On: Sep 12th 2018, 11:55 PM #380658

We do have a lot of talent, I think that is the trend now.  Kids want to play and if they have the talent why sit behind someone and waste eligibility.  Going forward a lot more players may take their talents to Group of 5 teams and start as true freshman.  Kiffin will stay after that OU beating and AD's bias towards him he is not going anywhere for a long time.  Unless hes desperate and take a lower level job like Kansas lol, which wont happen.
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d-owl said

 just have to make sure we have a good line.
Posted On: Sep 13th 2018, 9:14 AM #380665
And line play plus depth is typically the difference in a good P5 team and everybody else (or FBS vs FCS with the difference in scholarships).  The Alabama's and Clemson's of the world just plug in their next 5* guy on the D-line to shut you down.  Good teams at the G5 level only become really good through a couple of years of building a solid team and then typically fall back off the map when that motherload of talent graduates, coaches move on, etc.  Sounds kind of like where FAU will find itself next season, with the difference being Kiffin ***could*** still be around for awhile (but they need continuity in the coaching ranks).  That is why Boise State is the blueprint for G5 schools, but with their success also comes some hardship in getting the top teams to schedule you.  Beating OK State this weekend won't springboard them into the CFP conversation - they would need to schedule and beat a Clemson or Ohio State or somebody in the top-10, and if I am those teams WHY would I risk scheduling Boise???

All that being said, FAU should have a boat-load of talent back and a difference-maker at QB that will now have a year's experience for the 2019 season.  Playing Ohio State at least allows for the team to get on the map, but playing the first week of the season sucks just like playing OU first this year did.

But I am still hopeful for a 9 or 10-win season this year with a CUSA championship game and bowl appearance.
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owlsdad said

d-owl said

 just have to make sure we have a good line.
Posted On: Sep 13th 2018, 9:14 AM #380665
And line play plus depth is typically the difference in a good P5 team and everybody else (or FBS vs FCS with the difference in scholarships).  The Alabama's and Clemson's of the world just plug in their next 5* guy on the D-line to shut you down.  Good teams at the G5 level only become really good through a couple of years of building a solid team and then typically fall back off the map when that motherload of talent graduates, coaches move on, etc.  Sounds kind of like where FAU will find itself next season, with the difference being Kiffin ***could*** still be around for awhile (but they need continuity in the coaching ranks).  That is why Boise State is the blueprint for G5 schools, but with their success also comes some hardship in getting the top teams to schedule you.  Beating OK State this weekend won't springboard them into the CFP conversation - they would need to schedule and beat a Clemson or Ohio State or somebody in the top-10, and if I am those teams WHY would I risk scheduling Boise???

All that being said, FAU should have a boat-load of talent back and a difference-maker at QB that will now have a year's experience for the 2019 season.  Playing Ohio State at least allows for the team to get on the map, but playing the first week of the season sucks just like playing OU first this year did.

But I am still hopeful for a 9 or 10-win season this year with a CUSA championship game and bowl appearance.
Posted On: Sep 13th 2018, 10:19 AM #380667
Hopefully less reliant on JUCO transfers as well. While they may plug in holes if they work out, we have been largely burned by them this year, and I get the sense some of them who may not be getting the playing time they thought they were entitled to may be somewhat disgruntled. I'm also not going to complain about recruiting, but I think if Kiff is still here, we would want somewhat of an uptick. We are performing at the top of C USA (arguably best or at least top 4), but ideally would want to pull some higher profile kids to recruit more in line with a lower tier P5 or higher profile AAC school. 
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If Motor leaves, the backups are more than capcable, i.e. Whyte, McGriff, Tisdale (who I am VERY high on), and Davidson.

The big thing we may have unearthed, and would have kept us from being scary, is a high-caliber QB. We have not had a QB that could win us a game since Rusty Smith ten years ago. That cannot be understated.

The skill guys on O are out of this world: Durante (who I could honestly see leaving early), Wright, Harrison, and Bryant. All high caliber and could start at a lot of P5 schools.

The defenders are even more suprisingly skillful: Gilbert, Miller, etc. There may not be much of a drop off when Young & Azeez graduate.

What is scary is that we may have two players leave early: Motor & Durante - and not experience much of a dropoff in the wake of it!

I also think the new lockerooms will help us recruit, not to mention the impending IPF, which feels real now that the locker rooms have opened.

Beautiful stadium? Early playing time? NFL opportunity? The opportunity to play for a football genius in Lane Kiffin? Smokeshows on campus? What more could you want in a program!!!!

What a time to be an Owl fan!


                                         ROLL OWLS
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The "blessing" for next year's team (or any team in CUSA) is that unless those guys just have a MONSTER year or have CRAZY "measurables" (size, speed, pro-day times, bench press reps, etc.), they typically aren't going to get top-of-the-draft attention.  If Motor comes up with another 1900+ yard season, 30+ TDs, etc. then maybe - we all know how good he is, but I don't think his physical stats/times put him on that kind of radar.  With the start the running game is off to, and with the emergence we all now probably expect with the passing game, I think Motor's draft stock lowers and ***probably*** moves him into a spot that he would want to come back and light it up as a Senior.  Obviously I don't know his situation, but most guys make a decision to leave early based on where they are going to land on that rookie salary scale - and that is mostly a big consideration for 1st and at latest 2nd rounders.

I hope I am wrong on that, and that he lights it up the rest of this year and gets similar stats because he didn't all of the sudden become a worse running back.  He has been impressive in my eyes on how hard he has worked to get anything the first 2 weeks.  Honestly, I hope I am even more wrong on it and that he lights it up and still decides to stay!
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