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Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

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Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

There are 4 possible outcomes:
  1. We don't win the Sun Belt (~75%)
  2. We share the title and don't go to the New Orleans Bowl (~15%)
  3. We share the title but go to the New Orleans Bowl (~7%)
  4. We win the title outright (~3%)

Lets look at the composite conference schedule and decide which games are needed, which are helpful, and which kill us.

  * Sat, Oct 25    North Texas            Troy            - North Texas win VERY Helpful (1-3,3-1)
  * Sat, Oct 25 ULM                     Florida Atlantic   - FAU win imperative (1-3, 1-2)
  * Sat, Nov 01 Louisiana-Lafayette   Florida International - FIU win helpful (3-1, 3-1)
  * Sat, Nov 01 ULM                     Troy           - ULM win VERY helpful (2-3, 3-2)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Middle Tennessee   ULM   - Wash, ULM win slightly more helpful if we beat them (1-4, 3-3)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Florida Atlantic     North Texas   - FAU win VERY helpful (2-2, 1-4)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Florida International   Arkansas State   - Wash, depends on who we beat later..use ASU win (3-2, 4-1)
  * Sat, Nov 15 Florida Atlantic     Louisiana-Lafayette - FAU win imperative (3-2, 3-2)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Middle Tennessee   North Texas   - Wash, use MTSU win (2-4, 1-5)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Arkansas State     Florida Atlantic          - FAU win imperative (4-2, 4-2)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Florida International   ULM   - ULM win helpful (3-3, 4-3)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Troy             Louisiana-Lafayette - ULL win VERY helpful (3-3, 4-2)
  * Sat, Nov 29 North Texas     Arkansas State   - Wash, North Texas win helpful (2-5, 4-3)
  * Sat, Nov 29 Florida Atlantic     Florida International - FAU win imperative (4-2, 3-3)
  * Wed, Dec 03 Louisiana-Lafayette   Middle Tennessee - MTSU win helpful (3-4, 4-3)
  * Sat, Dec 06 Troy             Arkansas State   - ASU win VERY helpful (3-4, 4-3)




Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

Seriously.

This season is not done but or shot at the title is gone. Good teams would have to do very poorly for us to get it. Let's not be delusional here.

Best case scenario is that we win out and end up 8-5. We'd be bowl eligible and may qualify for one of those other SBC bowls.

Still, I wouldn't hold your breath. We barely beat WKU. We should down UNT however the rest of the games will be challenges. If we can't cut out penalties, turnovers and drops in the endzone, we may very well end up 3-9.

P.S. I don't respond to guest posts. All guests are encouraged to register with the site.
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

owlcountry said

Best case scenario is that we win out and end up 8-5. We'd be bowl eligible and may qualify for one of those other SBC bowls.

I wouldn't mind that. We've conquered New Orleans. Time for a new city.

I'm a proud lifetime member of the FAU National Alumni Association. Are you a member? Join now at www.faualumni.org.
Tradition in the Making, One Alum at a Time…
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

Yeah, hard for the SB championship, but not impossible, there is too much  "what ifs" right now, we just have to go 1 week at a time, keep winning and see what unfolds, and who knows, a couple key loses for some other teams, and we can slip right back in.

So this week,
GO FAU!!!!
and go UNT (vs troy) yeah, its a long shot! :P
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

The case I was showing was leaning more towards winning outright..the path to a shared Sun Belt title is somewhat less difficult but we still would need Troy to lose 3 of the 4 conference games they have remaining....not entirely out of the question considering the loss of their QB and games against ULL and ASU coming after their game at LSU.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

SeminOWL2006 said

There are 4 possible outcomes:
  1. We don't win the Sun Belt (~75%)
  2. We share the title and don't go to the New Orleans Bowl (~15%)
  3. We share the title but go to the New Orleans Bowl (~7%)
  4. We win the title outright (~3%)

Lets look at the composite conference schedule and decide which games are needed, which are helpful, and which kill us.

  * Sat, Oct 25    North Texas            Troy            - North Texas win VERY Helpful (1-3,3-1)
  * Sat, Oct 25 ULM                     Florida Atlantic   - FAU win imperative (1-3, 1-2)
  * Sat, Nov 01 Louisiana-Lafayette   Florida International - FIU win helpful (3-1, 3-1)
  * Sat, Nov 01 ULM                     Troy           - ULM win VERY helpful (2-3, 3-2)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Middle Tennessee   ULM   - Wash, ULM win slightly more helpful if we beat them (1-4, 3-3)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Florida Atlantic     North Texas   - FAU win VERY helpful (2-2, 1-4)
  * Sat, Nov 08 Florida International   Arkansas State   - Wash, depends on who we beat later..use ASU win (3-2, 4-1)
  * Sat, Nov 15 Florida Atlantic     Louisiana-Lafayette - FAU win imperative (3-2, 3-2)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Middle Tennessee   North Texas   - Wash, use MTSU win (2-4, 1-5)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Arkansas State     Florida Atlantic          - FAU win imperative (4-2, 4-2)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Florida International   ULM   - ULM win helpful (3-3, 4-3)
  * Sat, Nov 22 Troy             Louisiana-Lafayette - ULL win VERY helpful (3-3, 4-2)
  * Sat, Nov 29 North Texas     Arkansas State   - Wash, North Texas win helpful (2-5, 4-3)
  * Sat, Nov 29 Florida Atlantic     Florida International - FAU win imperative (4-2, 3-3)
  * Wed, Dec 03 Louisiana-Lafayette   Middle Tennessee - MTSU win helpful (3-4, 4-3)
  * Sat, Dec 06 Troy             Arkansas State   - ASU win VERY helpful (3-4, 4-3)





I love your effort but….it ain't gonna happen.

GO OWLS!
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)?

What year are you talking about?

Please do not think it is this year.  We need better things for the SBC.  If we win, the SBC will lose the credibilty they gained last year.  We need to take it on the chin this year and regroup for next year.

Love the Owls, but this is not going to be our year.  We will not finish 8-5 (as suggested), we only play 12 games.  We have not shown we can beat anyone of consequence.

I have to agree with F_O on the pigs flying photo.  Let's support our Owls as always, but please do not think that we are in any position to win the conference.  If we are then we have a very sad conference.



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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

fauowl said

Love the Owls, but this is not going to be our year.  We will not finish 8-5 (as suggested), we only play 12 games. 

Good point. Best case is 7-5.


P.S. I don't respond to guest posts. All guests are encouraged to register with the site.
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Re: Path to the Sun Belt Championship (for us)

I seriously doubt that the Sun Belt has any credibility to lose….and I never said this was likely, in fact I had the chance of an outright title at 3%…its likely lower.  For us to win a share of the title we only need to win out, Troy lose twice, ULL lose once.  We wouldn't get the tie-in to the New Orleans Bowl but we would have a share of the title nonetheless.

Florida Atlantic University Owls
2007 Sun Belt Football Champions 2007 New Orleans Bowl Champions 2008 Motor City Bowl Champions 2011 Sun Belt Basketball Champions No Bowls without Owls
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