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Sitting at 2-3, now for the rest of the way...

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walty12 said

All games here on out we arenít favored aside from Charlotte. †And we shouldnít be. †They are going to be tough fought wins. †UNT, La Tech, Stupid school down south, Marshall are all VERY capable of beating us. †

I hope we do better than 7-5 but as Iíve been saying (and being attacked for) all summer, thatís where weíre at.
Posted On: Oct 5th 2018, 8:54 AM #381657

While we are in fact narrow favorites in a few contests, Walty raises a good point…and here are some current probabilities via the folks at CFA…of note, we are going to be a touchdown underdog again FIU. That's hard to swallow…And if things pan the way they are forecast to, we are 6-6 at the end of the year:



I'm with him, have said all along 7-5 is a good season, and 8-4 is a great season.

We'll see…

BTW, CFA data also predicts both FIU and North Texas to run the table in C-USA - putting our showing last year in jeopardy.



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Rick said

BTW, CFA data also predicts both FIU and North Texas to run the table in C-USA - putting our showing last year in jeopardy.
Posted On: Oct 5th 2018, 9:37 AM #381658

I guess I am not understanding the hype on FIU. Who have they beaten to warrant it? Not saying we have done anything either.
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I also wonder about these predictions.  They think we have a better chance (win probability) to win next week @ Marshall than we do to win this week at home against a 1-4 ODU team???

Maybe that is true - but just doesn't sound right.  What is amazing is how the percentages change with one game.  If we blow ODU out, we will all of the sudden be favored in most of the games.  If we lose another close one, we will be underdogs.  But that is natural.
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FIU has not beaten anybody the caliber of Air Force. Wins over ODU, UMASS and FCS Ark-Pine Bluff who had already given up 90 AND 62 POINTS IN A GAME TO FCS TEAMS before GIVING UP only 55 to FIU.

We shall see as they say!
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Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:



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Rick said

Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:
Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:03 AM #381902



Still donít understand FIU.
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DeltAlumnus said

Rick said

Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:




Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:03 AM #381902



Still donít understand FIU.
Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:07 AM #381903

I didn't either….they hung with an overhyped Miami team…..and beat a few cupcakes…..they had a good finish to last year and made a bowl….I guess that's where it comes from….


"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog."
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
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Silver_Bullet32 said

DeltAlumnus said

Rick said

Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:




Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:03 AM #381902

I didn't either….they hung with an overhyped Miami team…..and beat a few cupcakes…..they had a good finish to last year and made a bowl….I guess that's where it comes from….

Still donít understand FIU.
Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:07 AM #381903


Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:27 AM #381904

I don't think computer generated rankings take anything into account from 2017.
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I still struggle with their model. †The original post had us as a 1 point favorite over ODU, and a 55.3% probability of beating Marshall in a 2 point game. †We beat ODU by 19 (really could have been more without some 3rd quarter lapses), and the model now shows our win probability over Marshall went DOWN to 50.4% but that we will probably win by close to 7 points??? †I would think the lower the win probability gets, the closer the score should get???

I like Massey's better.† It has a matchup tool where you can put any 2 teams against each other.† I did FAU vs Marshall and Massey says:


FL Atlantic Marshall
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 35 31
Median 34 28
Mean 34.38 29.46
Win Probability 63% 37%


So somewhere between a 4-6 point win, but our probability of winning is 63% (had to update it because originally I ran the mathup on a neutral field - Marshall got a little closer being at home, but not much difference).
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Here is the rest of the season per Massey after we beat Marshall to get to 4-3/2-1:


FL Atlantic Louisiana Tech
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 38 28
Median 38 28
Mean 39.57 28.50
Win Probability 78% 22%

FL Atlantic Florida Intl
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 34 30
Median 34 30
Mean 34.96 30.69
Win Probability 62% 38%

FL Atlantic WKU
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 38 24
Median 38 23
Mean 38.11 23.68
Win Probability 84% 16%

FL Atlantic North Texas
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 34 31
Median 35 34
Mean 36.26 33.83
Win Probability 57% 43%

FL Atlantic Charlotte
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 42 14
Median 42 14
Mean 43.32 16.01
Win Probability 97% 3%

So Massey has us at 9-3/7-1, but has MTSU only losing to UAB in the last game of the season - so they would be the division champ and play in the CUSA conference championship game.† I think we stumble somewhere along the way and finish 8-4, miss the conference championship, and end up in a bowl like Boca, Bahamas, or Gasparilla.
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