Sitting at 2-3, now for the rest of the way...
Posted
#381658
(In Topic #55576)
Administrator
Member since 2006
walty12 said
All games here on out we aren’t favored aside from Charlotte. And we shouldn’t be. They are going to be tough fought wins. UNT, La Tech, Stupid school down south, Marshall are all VERY capable of beating us.
I hope we do better than 7-5 but as I’ve been saying (and being attacked for) all summer, that’s where we’re at.Posted On: Oct 5th 2018, 8:54 AM #381657
While we are in fact narrow favorites in a few contests, Walty raises a good point…and here are some current probabilities via the folks at CFA…of note, we are going to be a touchdown underdog again FIU. That's hard to swallow…And if things pan the way they are forecast to, we are 6-6 at the end of the year:
I'm with him, have said all along 7-5 is a good season, and 8-4 is a great season.
We'll see…
BTW, CFA data also predicts both FIU and North Texas to run the table in C-USA - putting our showing last year in jeopardy.
Posted
VIP DONOR
Member since 2012
Rick said
BTW, CFA data also predicts both FIU and North Texas to run the table in C-USA - putting our showing last year in jeopardy.Posted On: Oct 5th 2018, 9:37 AM #381658
I guess I am not understanding the hype on FIU. Who have they beaten to warrant it? Not saying we have done anything either.
Posted
Wise Owl
Member since 2016
Maybe that is true - but just doesn't sound right. What is amazing is how the percentages change with one game. If we blow ODU out, we will all of the sudden be favored in most of the games. If we lose another close one, we will be underdogs. But that is natural.
Posted
VIP DONOR
Member since 2008
We shall see as they say!
Posted
Administrator
Member since 2006
Posted
VIP DONOR
Member since 2012
Rick said
Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:03 AM #381902
Still don’t understand FIU.
Posted
Wise Owl
Member since 2008
DeltAlumnus said
I didn't either….they hung with an overhyped Miami team…..and beat a few cupcakes…..they had a good finish to last year and made a bowl….I guess that's where it comes from….
"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog."
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
Posted
VIP DONOR
Member since 2012
Silver_Bullet32 said
DeltAlumnus said
Rick said
Updated numbers from CFA…now showing a 7-5 finish, which is up a game over last week prior to ODU:
Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:03 AM #381902
I didn't either….they hung with an overhyped Miami team…..and beat a few cupcakes…..they had a good finish to last year and made a bowl….I guess that's where it comes from….
Still don’t understand FIU.Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:07 AM #381903Posted On: Oct 10th 2018, 8:27 AM #381904
I don't think computer generated rankings take anything into account from 2017.
Posted
Wise Owl
Member since 2016
I like Massey's better. It has a matchup tool where you can put any 2 teams against each other. I did FAU vs Marshall and Massey says:
FL Atlantic | Marshall | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 35 | 31 |
Median | 34 | 28 |
Mean | 34.38 | 29.46 |
Win Probability | 63% | 37% |
So somewhere between a 4-6 point win, but our probability of winning is 63% (had to update it because originally I ran the mathup on a neutral field - Marshall got a little closer being at home, but not much difference).
Posted
Wise Owl
Member since 2016
FL Atlantic | Louisiana Tech | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 38 | 28 |
Median | 38 | 28 |
Mean | 39.57 | 28.50 |
Win Probability | 78% | 22% |
FL Atlantic | Florida Intl | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 34 | 30 |
Median | 34 | 30 |
Mean | 34.96 | 30.69 |
Win Probability | 62% | 38% |
FL Atlantic | WKU | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 38 | 24 |
Median | 38 | 23 |
Mean | 38.11 | 23.68 |
Win Probability | 84% | 16% |
FL Atlantic | North Texas | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 34 | 31 |
Median | 35 | 34 |
Mean | 36.26 | 33.83 |
Win Probability | 57% | 43% |
FL Atlantic | Charlotte | |
Actual Score | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely | 42 | 14 |
Median | 42 | 14 |
Mean | 43.32 | 16.01 |
Win Probability | 97% | 3% |
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