Local Owl said

So….Should we try to win or lose ? Man, I'm lost.

Posted On: Apr 1st 2016, 2:15 PM #355482

That's not far from the truth. The RPI for us at home for a 3-game series in and of the series itself:

Due to the deficiencies in RPI, at home, 1-2 is indeed better than 2-1, and 0-3 is better than 1-2 (and equal to 3-0). For visitor, 1-2 is the best. RPI needs some serious adjustments.

	Actual W	Actual L	Adj W	Adj L	Adj W %	Win % RPI	Opp Win%	OO Win %	RPI
Home	3	0	2.1	0	1.00000	0.25000	0.00000	0.25000	.500
	2	1	1.4	1.3	0.51852	0.12963	0.16667	0.16667	.463
	1	2	0.7	2.6	0.21212	0.05303	0.33333	0.08333	.470
	0	3	0	3.9	0.00000	0.00000	0.50000	0.00000	.500
Visitor	3	0	3.9	0	1.00000	0.25000	0.00000	0.25000	.500
	2	1	2.6	0.7	0.78788	0.19697	0.16667	0.16667	.530
	1	2	1.3	1.4	0.48148	0.12037	0.33333	0.08333	.537
	0	3	0	2.1	0.00000	0.00000	0.50000	0.00000	.500

Just one most instance of the ludicrosity in the NCAA's formula for baseball RPI, this one from today's D1Baseball.com Ouch List. Minnesota went the dreaded 2-1 at home, and, as shown in earlier posts, paid the price for not being swept at home - anything is better than 2-1:

"– Minnesota
What Happened: Went 2-1 at home vs. Iowa
Why It Hurt: This is a great example of a Northern teams’ RPI anchor.
Yes you are actually seeing a team with a winning weekend on this Ouch List. The Gophers don’t belong on this list. They don’t. They won two-of-three against Iowa, a team that hosted a Regional last year, and yet the reason they are on this ignominious list is because the Gophers’ RPI plummeted from a very respectable No. 22 all the way down to No. 38. Sixteen spots for winning a conference weekend. And the worst part? Get this… despite this precipitous fall their strength of schedule actually got better, going from No. 39 in the nation up to No. 31 in the nation. So how the hell do they fall 16 spots in the RPI from a successful weekend?"

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/sorenson-ouch-list-april-4th/

this team is suprising people. but that is why i love baseball.

Polls for 4/4:

#FAU Baseball in 4/4 Polls:
NCBWA - 12 ⬆
USA Today - 13 ⬆
D1 Baseball - 17 ⬆
Base Amer 18 ⬆
Base News - 18
On Deck: @ UCF 6:30 P#GoOwls

— Rick Henderson (@Florida_Owl) April 5, 2016

OC Irritant said

Good news though, if we get swept according to the RPI analysis we read this week it will help us with our RPI.

Posted On: Apr 8th 2016, 9:06 PM #355616

Our win yesterday dropped us 3 RPI places, our loss today 2 as of this moment. We are down a total of 10 since the UCF game, but only down 3, at this moment, since last Sunday. Had we won today, our RPI would be .0007 less (the .007 difference between 1-2 and 2-1 home RPI * 3 games / 29 total games), but in our range in the low-mid 20's, that doesn't currently look to be enough to change the RPI rank.

Not a good weekend, but 2-2 for the week, and the sky is not, as somebody (oddly enough, the same person who seemed to relish doing so last last year) claimed, falling.

We are currently ranked #17 in D1Baseball. How others around us did this weekend and week:

The 5 immediately above us
#12 Clemson 1-2  2-2
#13 UNC 2-1 3-2
#14 NC State 2-0 3-0
#15 LSU 2-1 (Vandy) 3-1
#16 East Carolina 1-2 2-2

The 5 immediately below us
#18 Ole Miss 3-0 4-0
#19 UC Santa Barbara 1-1-1 1-1-1
#20 Long Beach State 2-0 2-0
#21 Kentucky 2-1 2-1
#22 Texas Tech 3-0 (OK State) 4-1 (1-1 vs FSU)

Will post all of the polls later, but for now these are in:

Baseball America 21 ⬇
Perfect Game 18 ⬇

Rick said

Will post all of the polls later, but for now these are in:

Baseball America 21 ⬇
Perfect Game 18 ⬇

Posted On: Apr 11th 2016, 9:32 AM #355672

D1Baseball 24 ⬇

RPI is at 25 ⬇

owlcountry40 said

DeltAlumnus said

Disappointing series 

Posted On: Apr 10th 2016, 4:31 PM #355651

How about embarrassing UNCC Charlotte RPI was below 150.
We will fall out of the top 25 in most polls and killed any lead we had with USM or Rice.
These losses will haunt us. 

Posted On: Apr 10th 2016, 4:42 PM #355653

As expected, the sky has not fallen, nor has FAU from the polls.

From those released so far:

National Collegiate Baseball Writers 16
USA Today Coaches Poll 17
Perfect Game 18
Baseball America 21
Collegiate Baseball 24
D1Baseball 24

RPI is at 25. In the bizarro world that is NCAA RPI, if we had won yesterday, we would be at 28.

Just playing around with some RPI estimates. Being Monday night, this ignores all mid-week games, including our own at FGCU, and can be refined better after tomorrow's game, and even further refined Friday morning. Even then, the opponents' and opponents' opponents' record contributions to RPI over the weekend. While those are estimated to be stable, they will change. However, that margin of error should be slight even though only at the halfway point of the season. Anyway, as of right now, ignoring all midweek games and assuming opponent records are relatively stable, here is how our series at Marshall would affect our RPI and where it would place as of today's RPIs:

3-0 .5868 21st
2-1 .5817 24th
1-2 .5727 36th
0-3 .5706 38th

On the road, unlike at home, for RPI is it always best to win as many as possible.

Marshall has no midweek games this week, so there RPI between now and Friday will be only affected by their opponents' and opponents' opponents' records between now and Friday.

Marshall is an impressive 12-4 at home this year, and is a top 100 RPI team. If we take the series, they will likely no longer be a top 100 team.