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SERIES THREAD: #28 FAU vs FIU - May 4th - 6th, 2018

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I'm ok with the weekend rotation that we currently have. But we must give them an early lead to take the pressure off. We also must have solid relief pitching. I know that is a lot to ask, but unfortunately , that's the way it is.
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Local Owl said

I'm ok with the weekend rotation that we currently have. But we must give them an early lead to take the pressure off. We also must have solid relief pitching. I know that is a lot to ask, but unfortunately , that's the way it is.
Posted On: May 6th 2018, 1:40 PM #378230

Losing your top two guys is going to be tough for anyone team to overcome…ANY team.

Hope Jake at least makes it back in…Nowatnick would be a plus as well.
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FAU has clinched at least a 7th place finish in C-USA. The conference standings are based
upon winning percentage. A tie counts as one-half win and one-half loss. The winning
percentage, of course, excludes canceled games. So, for example, FAU is 15-7-1 with one
game canceled. The winning percentage would be based upon 15.5 wins over 23 games played,
resulting in the .674 WPct showing in the standings below. The current standings, and best
possible (winning final 6) and worst possible (losing final 6) possible winning percentages
are shown below:

         W    L    T    X    WPct   Best%  Worst%
USM     19    4         1    .826    .862    .655
FAU     15    7    1    1    .674    .741    .534
LATech  16    8              .667    .733    .533
Char    13   11              .542    .633    .433
UTSA    12   11         1    .522    .621    .414
FIU     11   12         1    .478    .586    .379
WKU     11   13              .458    .567    .367
UAB     11   13              .458    .567    .367
Rice     9   13    2         .417    .533    .333
MT       9   14    1         .396    .517    .317
Marsh    7   16         1    .304    .448    .241
ODU      6   17         1    .261    .414    .207


Next, we have to look at a worst-case scenario. This would start with FAU losing all
remaining games. After that, look at the teams at the top which would have a Worst%
that is ahead of FAU, and then work those down from the top assuming they lose all
possible games in order to provide the best chances for teams on the bottom. once no
more teams on the top, then look for teams at the bottom that could not catch FAU
even should FAU lose all remaining games. Work from the bottom up, assuming the bottom
team loses all remaining games. once there are no bottom feeders left, look all all possible
scenarios for all remaining games. This is a lot easier to show as a post today as
after running the tops and bottoms, there are only two series left to analyze, Charlotte
@ UTSA and FIU @ WKU.

First thing to note that if FAU should lose out, at present only USM has a Worst%
that would be better than FAU, making USM, at the moment, the only team current on
the top. Also note that Rice, MT, Marshall, and ODU have a Best% less than the Worst%
for FAU, meaning none of those teams can catch up to FAU, and are currently the bottom.

So, to start things off, the assumption is that MT and WKU sweep FAU, and that LATech
and Marshall sweep USM. That provides the following results:

         W    L    T    X    WPct   Best%  Worst%
LATech  19    8              .704    .733    .633         
USM     19   10         1    .655    .655    .655
Char    13   11              .542    .633    .433
FAU     15   13    1    1    .534    .534    .534
UTSA    12   11         1    .522    .621    .414
WKU     14   13              .519    .567    .467
FIU     11   12         1    .478    .586    .379
MT      12   14    1         .463    .517    .417
UAB     11   13              .458    .567    .367
Rice     9   13    2         .417    .533    .333
Marsh   10   16         1    .385    .448    .345
ODU      6   17         1    .261    .414    .207


We now have a new team on top, as should LATech get swept in its final series with
ODU, LATech would still finish ahead of FAU. However, that would still leave ODU at
the bottom, so we will start feeding from the bottom and have UTSA sweep ODU. That
would bring UTSA up to 15-11, with a Worst% of .517 (15/29), below FAU's Worst% of
.534, so still no new top. With no new top, continue feeding from the bottom with
Marshall getting swept by Charlotte. That brings Charlotte to 16-11, and a Worst%
of .533 (16/30), again below FAU's Worst% of .534, so again no new top. That brings
us to Rice, which we assume gets swept by both FIU and UAB, with neither coming close
to becoming a top. Although shown behind MT in the standings above, note that UAB Best%
is above FAU's Worst%, and that MT's Best% is below FAU's Worst%. The next bottom feeder
in line is therefore MT, which we will have get swept by UAB.

         W    L    T    X    WPct   Best%  Worst%
USM     19   10         1    .655    .655    .655
LATech  19   11              .633    .633    .633         
Char    16   11              .593    .633    .533
UTSA    15   11         1    .577    .621    .517
UAB     17   13              .567    .567    .567
FIU     14   12         1    .538    .586    .483
FAU     15   13    1    1    .534    .534    .534
WKU     14   13              .519    .567    .467
MT      12   17    1         .417    .417    .417
Marsh   10   19         1    .345    .345    .345
Rice     9   19    2         .333    .333    .333
ODU      9   20         1    .310    .310    .310


At this point, there are no more tops or bottoms, so it comes to the series analysis.
Fortunately, there are only two. The first series is Charlotte @ UTSA. Both are already
ahead of FAU, and this is the only remaining series for each, so the analysis is simple:
cancel the series - all games rained out, leaving both ahead of FAU in this FAU worst
case scenario. That leaves only one other series, FAU @ WKU. WKU holds the tiebreaker,
but must finish no worse than 1-0-1 to match FAU's record and take the tiebreaker. WKU
cannot suffer a single loss, as even 2-1 would put it at 16-14 with a WPct of .533,
just behind FAU's .534. However, should FIU suffer a loss, at 15-14 its WPct would be
.518, requiring FIU to win at least one game to finish ahead of FAU's .534. That FIU win
would, of course, put WKU behind FAU. Therefore, in addition to the four team that cannot
catch FAU (ODU, Rice, Marshall and MT), at least one of WKU or FIU will have to finish
below FAU. That minimum of at least five teams behind FAU means that at this point, after
the May 6 games, FAU has clinched at least a 7th place finish in C-USA.


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The app I wrote to do the analysis can get quite complicated when more than one series needs to be evaluated. For example, yesterday, Rice was not a bottom feeder, and the series between FIU & WKU, FIU & Rice, and UAB and Rice all came into play. Each 3-game series can have 20 different results, as shown below for the home team (reverse W-L for visitors). Just with FIU & WKU, and then FIU & Rice, that was 20^2 possible results (400 possible outcomes). Then throw in UAB and Rice, and it is 20^3, or 8,000 different possible results. It's a lot easier when down to one series, such as FIU and WKU, which can be explained as "WKU must have a win, but must not have any losses. With a WKU win, FIU gets a loss, and would require a win giving WKU a loss it cannot withstand. One or the other must be eliminated."

It helped to prove in a bit of a Saturday morning tweet-off, in exchanges via private messages and emails to some tweeters and C-USA, that after Friday's games, FAU would clinch a C-USA tournament birth with a FAU win, or a loss by any of MTSU, UAB, or WKU, or a subsequent loss by FIU should it have won the last two against us. We clinched the berth just before, or shortly after our game started yesterday.

The 20 possible 3-game series outcomes (W-L-Tie), canceled games no included in results:
0-0-0
0-0-1
0-0-2
0-0-3
0-1-0
0-1-1
0-1-2
0-2-0
0-2-1
0-3-0
1-0-0
1-0-1
1-0-2
1-1-0
1-1-1
1-2-0
2-0-0
2-0-1
2-1-0
3-0-0
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