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Some ridiculous analysis...

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Sounds good to me! If you have twitter follow me @squints_15 and we can message on there or I can give you my email or something
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Hoot_N_Holler said

Let's talk some more directly, as I'm into college football and analytics in general (manly through work).

Combine the two and that's a good time…

I'd like to design a cheat sheet for the everyday fan with you. Predictive analytics using past data would be something new and cool to do while watching - haven't really seen it done before.
Posted On: Aug 21st 2018, 12:31 PM #379559

Great write up and this sounds very interesting going forward.

GO OWLS!
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This was probably the best piece on FAU I've read all year.
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Quick true story and a big part of the reason why I'm fascinated by this.

Urban Meyer was big into analytics while at UF, and I used to read all about it.

Had a buddy that was a photographer and he asked me to attend the Kentucky game with him.

On the way up I told him some of the things I had read, in particular that UF usually scored when there was a play of 20 yards or more.

Jeff Demps had a 20+ yard run and my buddy looked down the field to me - I pointed to the end zone (at least 60 yards away) and he ran down there.

Two plays later and Jeff broke off a long run for a TD. My buddy was one of the only people down there and got the shot.

Predictive analytics…
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Appreciate it! And yup, analytics are getting big in every sport now, but most people think of analytics as crunching numbers as if you should go for it on fourth down. While I think that stuff is important, charting plays and being able to have data to predict what an opponent is going to do in situations or which players you have on your team who are doing better than raw stats might show is what will give teams an advantage.

Not sure if you guys have heard of Warren Sharp, but following him kind of gave me this idea. He does a ton of NFL work and it fascinates me. I think a big part of the problem were seeing mostly in the NFL is the refusal of coaches to adapt to the new style of football. Most coaches are old players who love the "physical" ground and pound where it's not really the best style of football to win. The Eagles are a perfect example of not being old school.
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I appreciate the work done.

However, I think you are drastically underestimating a statement you made in your work:

"When teams tried to load up to stop the run, Driskel was able to make plays due to his decision making"

I am not sure most fans appreciate how well he protected the football and stayed within himself.  We get a a gun slinger in there throwing picks all over the place and holding onto the ball too long (both things I saw a ton of in the spring game (I know, its just the spring game)….it's going to be trouble.

Analytics and predictions also dont take into account chemistry and injury.  Both of which we were highly fortunate in last year.

Teambeer is the most knowledgeable FAU sports fan I know, way smarter than me.
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When you don't play smart and you are out of shape you can get injured much easier…that can come from frustration of a lousy coach as well (see three years prior).

 :Laughing:
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Wait…so after all the number crunching, who wins the FAU v UCF game?  :Big-Grin:
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@Walty, completely fair statement. I don't think analytics is a 100% way to go about game planning and coaching. There is so much more that goes into it which is why these guys are coaches and I'm not lol. I might've mentioned it in the article or it was a tweet I can't remember, but I mentioned that Driskel's decision making was tremendous and allowed FAU to be successful last season. However he struggled throwing the ball downfield and when teams are giving you one-on-one's you need to take advantage of those if you want to beat Oklahoma and I'll throw UCF in there. Kiffin's ability to develop QB's is why I think Johnson or Robison will be able to become more mature and good decision makers. There is no question that both of those guys have more raw talent than Driskel IMO.

FAU can run through C-USA again by just running the ball every play. If they want to compete with OU and beat UCF you can't live on that. Just my opinion, not going to rebuttable against ya, why sports are great because there are so many ways you can look at situations and converse.

@Teambeer… I don't know, I am really curious to watch both teams first couple of games. FAU I want to see QB play and UCF I want to see how their defense adapts to the 3/4 and how Heupel uses the personnel they have on offense. That's a big concern I have about Heupel. I am supposed to be heading down to Orlando (live in NY) for that game so I'm very excited for it and hope both teams are undefeated.
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Squints15 said

@Walty, completely fair statement. I don't think analytics is a 100% way to go about game planning and coaching. There is so much more that goes into it which is why these guys are coaches and I'm not lol. I might've mentioned it in the article or it was a tweet I can't remember, but I mentioned that Driskel's decision making was tremendous and allowed FAU to be successful last season. However he struggled throwing the ball downfield and when teams are giving you one-on-one's you need to take advantage of those if you want to beat Oklahoma and I'll throw UCF in there. Kiffin's ability to develop QB's is why I think Johnson or Robison will be able to become more mature and good decision makers. There is no question that both of those guys have more raw talent than Driskel IMO.

FAU can run through C-USA again by just running the ball every play. If they want to compete with OU and beat UCF you can't live on that. Just my opinion, not going to rebuttable against ya, why sports are great because there are so many ways you can look at situations and converse.

@Teambeer… I don't know, I am really curious to watch both teams first couple of games. FAU I want to see QB play and UCF I want to see how their defense adapts to the 3/4 and how Heupel uses the personnel they have on offense. That's a big concern I have about Heupel. I am supposed to be heading down to Orlando (live in NY) for that game so I'm very excited for it and hope both teams are undefeated.
Posted On: Aug 21st 2018, 2:22 PM #379571

My main concern are the losses on the OL and the lack of depth on offense in general. I believe the OL losses will have much more of an impact than the losses at QB and receiver. Kiffin did pick up a couple of decent OL grad transfers but, while I agree that the QB position will likely be improved this year, it may not show up in the offensive play mainly due to the OL's inexperience in playing together. It may not slow down Singletary much as you suggest but could significantly impact the passing game.

The defense will be killer though and should carry this team.
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