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Some ridiculous analysis...

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owl said

Squints15 said

@Walty, completely fair statement. I don't think analytics is a 100% way to go about game planning and coaching. There is so much more that goes into it which is why these guys are coaches and I'm not lol. I might've mentioned it in the article or it was a tweet I can't remember, but I mentioned that Driskel's decision making was tremendous and allowed FAU to be successful last season. However he struggled throwing the ball downfield and when teams are giving you one-on-one's you need to take advantage of those if you want to beat Oklahoma and I'll throw UCF in there. Kiffin's ability to develop QB's is why I think Johnson or Robison will be able to become more mature and good decision makers. There is no question that both of those guys have more raw talent than Driskel IMO.

FAU can run through C-USA again by just running the ball every play. If they want to compete with OU and beat UCF you can't live on that. Just my opinion, not going to rebuttable against ya, why sports are great because there are so many ways you can look at situations and converse.

@Teambeer… I don't know, I am really curious to watch both teams first couple of games. FAU I want to see QB play and UCF I want to see how their defense adapts to the 3/4 and how Heupel uses the personnel they have on offense. That's a big concern I have about Heupel. I am supposed to be heading down to Orlando (live in NY) for that game so I'm very excited for it and hope both teams are undefeated.
Posted On: Aug 21st 2018, 2:22 PM #379571

My main concern are the losses on the OL and the lack of depth on offense in general. I believe the OL losses will have much more of an impact than the losses at QB and receiver. Kiffin did pick up a couple of decent OL grad transfers but, while I agree that the QB position will likely be improved this year, it may not show up in the offensive play mainly due to the OL's inexperience in playing together. It may not slow down Singletary much as you suggest but could significantly impact the passing game.

The defense will be killer though and should carry this team.
Posted On: Aug 21st 2018, 9:16 PM #379572
Oline will be fine I have said this a million times on here.

The two GT have filled in and they have been running with the same starters all fall pretty much.
Jake Bennett who was highly rated JUCO is not even starting from what I hear.
WR might be more of a concern because the guy have been nicked up during the fall.
 
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I'm with OC on this one. Our line will be fine with the new additions. I wish we still had Coach Justice on staff. He is one of the best in the country and will someday be a head coach.
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This truly will be a test. In years past I would  call it a body bag game. But with Kiffen , I feel like we have a chance. I always knew coaching made a difference, but until I saw it, I never knew how much. Those three win seasons were tough to sit through. I'm going to Das Biergarten to watch it.
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I think we'll at least make the game interesting. I think we'll one or two picks, since our defense is pretty experienced and Kyler Murray doesn't have as much experience as Mayfield. I think we'll probably score a couple TD's, but run out of gas in the 4th quarter.
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I think we're going to beat OU by a touchdown. Our running game is unstoppable, and with some downfield pass completions, our offense is unstoppable. OU is only ranked 7th, and just aren't as good as Bama, OSU, and Clemson. We're 30th and beating # 7 just doesn't seem like that big of an upset.
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Wow - I like your enthusiasm.

But an unranked team ("others receiving votes" doesn't officially count - but I understand what you are saying) beating a top-10 team would rank as by far the greatest achievement in the history of FAU football.  I'd say that would be a huge upset and a major deal.  I am hoping for a well-played game, looking for a few big plays and turnovers, and seeing if we can be in striking distance late in the game.

At the same time, I expect a spy on #5 and 7 other men in the box from their defense until we prove we can beat them with something different on offense.  A few big passes over the top, some other guys breaking loose for big runs/reverses/bubble screens, etc. would be a big deal early.  I also expect we better have a very good tackling day, as they are no doubt going to have some very capable skill players that we can't afford to just hit (and not tackle) or over-pursue.

Far from statistical analysis, but those are my keys to the game (and obviously none of them are Earth-shattering or anything different from just about every G5 vs P5 contest).
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jgf2017 said

I think we're going to beat OU by a touchdown. Our running game is unstoppable, and with some downfield pass completions, our offense is unstoppable. OU is only ranked 7th, and just aren't as good as Bama, OSU, and Clemson. We're 30th and beating # 7 just doesn't seem like that big of an upset.
Posted On: Aug 22nd 2018, 11:15 AM #379579

I hope you're right… You never disappoint with your predictions lol.

As was said earlier in this thread, the difference is pretty significant once you get past the 1st team O and D. Where we rotate no-stars and 2-stars and walk-ons in to replace the 3-stars and former 4-stars, OU will rotate 3 and 4-stars in to replace 4 and 5-stars.

I know star rankings aren't the final arbiter of a players skill and ability, but they do provide a reasonable metric as to who's players are better.

And I do think that "only 7" is probably underestimating them. Obviously we have a fighting chance, but 7 is still pretty dang good.
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David Slavic said

I think we'll at least make the game interesting. I think we'll one or two picks, since our defense is pretty experienced and Kyler Murray doesn't have as much experience as Mayfield. I think we'll probably score a couple TD's, but run out of gas in the 4th quarter.

Posted On: Aug 22nd 2018, 9:33 AM #379576

I agree w this post except the last comment. Running out of gas in the 4th quarter?! That's slap to Coach Wilson Love's face… We don't have the problems anymore. They went away when Coach Partridge left.
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Island_Owl88 said

David Slavic said

I think we'll at least make the game interesting. I think we'll one or two picks, since our defense is pretty experienced and Kyler Murray doesn't have as much experience as Mayfield. I think we'll probably score a couple TD's, but run out of gas in the 4th quarter.

Posted On: Aug 22nd 2018, 9:33 AM #379576

I agree w this post except the last comment. Running out of gas in the 4th quarter?! That's slap to Coach Wilson Love's face… We don't have the problems anymore. They went away when Coach Partridge left.
Posted On: Aug 22nd 2018, 12:10 PM #379582

Lol fair point. I'm probably just so used to watching us collapse lol.
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I think we have the experience to compete against OU. Previous coaching staff were pushing underclassmen in fire. Now we have Juniors/Seniors/JUCOs and arguably the best coaching staff in program history. I expect us to compete for all 4Q and our defense will prevent a blowout loss or even a shootout.

Ridiculous analysis:
If we still had Driskel at QB, we beat OU.
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