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2022 C-USA Championship & Total Wins Forecast for FAU Football

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It's that time again as we have the latest prognostications for FAU Football heading into the third year of the Willie Taggart era.

Oddsmakers are 9-2 over the last 11 years in being within a game on either the plus or minus side of their regular season forecast. Last year was one of the two seasons, as they fell flat by two games.

Regardless, this year's outlook is a bit of a head scratcher.

Florida Atlantic is slated as the 4th best chance to win the Championship, and remain ineligible for the post season.

The 5.5 wins tally seems low for a number of reasons - even if the Owls tread water and make no improvements. Objectively, they will "likely" go 2-2 in non conference play. This would mean they can still drop two C-USA games and finish 8-4. Dropping just one could give them a 9-3 effort.

But who would they lose to in the league to begin with?

The Blazers could present some trouble. Outside of that, second tier considerations honestly only present the Hilltoppers. And they face both teams at home.

MTSU, Rice, and FIU seem very probable wins for reasons that include prior program knowledge, recruiting deficiencies, and both emotional and validated outcome history.

Charlotte is a -7 underdog to open the season, meaning the Owls would be -4 if the game was played on the road. That seems to be a "we know nothing about the teams so we will go neutral" approach. But they know enough to give both teams just 10 combined wins - which makes no sense.

By deduction, the road trip to Denton must be playing into the equation. Considering these forecasts involve math and prior occurrences, this does make sense. However, the last loss there (2018) was the result of a disastrous scheduling move pitting the Owls against a 9:30 PM local time start on a Thursday night start with five days of rest (travel included).

All of this factored in, these would seem to be reasonable win total "outcome ratings" for 2022:

Underperform 6 or less
OK season 7
Good season 8
Great season 9

Was bitten last year, but have faith in the ability of new OC Brent Dearmon to inject some offensive schemes that will carry the team upward in scoring. Anything less than a +6 PPG improvement over last year (25.4 PPG) would seem to fall short.

Interesting stat to note:

Out of 46 FBS teams who posted 30+ PPG in 2021, only Texas (5-7) finished below 6-6. And only one finished at 6-6 (Virginia).

This means 44 went 7-5 or better.

Fearless Prediction:  8 Wins

Go Owls  :cool:
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I think 8 wins is pretty doable…. if we split the OOC, but that's not easy….SE LA looks like a win…. but Ohio U on the road is far from a likely win…. UCF and Purdue are solid football teams…. we are underdogs in both those games but a UCF upset at home could change everything…. as far as the rest of the schedule, I don't see us going 6 out of 7 if we go into heavy conference play at 2-3… a good bowl opportunity (maybe even a conference championship appearance) will probably come down to WKU at home….I think the odds makers are unsure about our early schedule because we don't have a clear picture at QB …I think MJJ is more of a threat then we think ….I can definitely see us going 7-4 into that WKU game…. but more likely 6-5….

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog."
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
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I agree with you Rick..IF..we don't collapse for a 3rd straight year!

Just based on that above we are above 6 and under 2 on the list, add in 1 and should be 2 OOC wins and we hit 8, I would bet, and I don't bet, on the over here!
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I agree with you, Rick 8-4 seems to be a good spot. Lots of returning starters and a QB in his second year in this system. I'll live with 7-5, but won't be happy. Anything less than 6 wins and we will be heading into the AAC with a new coach.
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9-3 or 8-4 is my prediction.
We lose games against Purdue, UCF and one C-USA opponent.
FAU has talent, Perry should be more comfortable, the O-Line more mature or more talented and better adjustments at the RB and WR positions. I would like to see more playing time for MJ.
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I see a road to eight but I think seven is a far likelier outcome for most wins. Ideally you want to start 3-0 by beating UNCC, Ohio, and SELA. UTEP and Rice seem winnable. So the other seven…

UCF: Loss. Don’t know if it’ll be 48-14 bad but UCF is poised to be a top-25 team again. 

@ Purdue: Likely loss right now, but FAU will have four games under its belt by that point. So ideally you’d think that’ll help their approach rather than the P5 game being Week 1. 

@ UNT: I don’t know enough about UNT’s current roster but they always feel snakebitten by injuries and bad luck. Agree with Rick on how ridiculous the 2018 scheduling was. I think this game is winnable but road trip makes me a bit worried. Meh. Win. UAB: Arguably the best team in the conference, but they lost two of their top defenders. Still feels like a probable loss. So let’s call it 5-4. 

@ FIU: I think FIU is going to be much better than people think, and their seniors have never beaten FAU. Will that mean anything? Then again, FAU has bullied FIU into the ground since D’Anfernee McGriff was playing TE. Remember him? Win. 

@ MTSU: I don’t care if that program is arguably a trainwreck and if Stockstill should be nearing his last days with a headset. FAU hasn’t won there in nearly 20 years. It’ll be November. FAU hasn’t played well on the road at all in the back half of the season since 2020. Loss. 

WKU: New QB, new top receivers, no Malone. But that’s a good program and they’ve been extremely competitive against FAU even in losses the last few years. I see this as the game 2021 FAU loses but 2022 FAU pulls out. Win. 

I don’t think FAU will be 3-9 nor do I think they’ll be 9-3. I think, from what little I know of new personnel changes and lineups, this is a 6-6 team with the potential to steal a tough game and the potential to blow a “winnable” game. But I do think 7-5 and a bowl is the path to buy into.

Go Owls! 

Twitter: @JakeElman97
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8-4.

Losses to ucf, Purdue, uab, and a random game where it just hits the fan.

I do think this team will be much improved simply by adding Dearmon.

We need some momentum going into the AAC. Need more casual fans to buy in and really follow the team.

NEED the students to tailgate and stay for the games like the old days.

ROLL OWLS.


                                         ROLL OWLS
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Now that Clark is stepping down as head coach at UAB, this is an opportunity for us to compete for the title. All fellow owls on here make good points. Makes me cringe reliving some bad memories. I’m optimistic going into the season with the recent coaching changes and P5 transfers, hopefully we hit on 2-3 of them. The OLine is solid and deep.  If DL, Anderson and Joyner start hot watch out. Hopefully Orlando implements a good system and the OC calls good games. Kosi going into his 2nd year and building more chemistry with Burton, Wester and have a third receiver step up would allow us to reach that 30 ppg to have a winning season. RBs should be solid with Ford, Scott and the rest of that deep group.  I would be disappointed if we only win 5,6 or 7 games. I believe we have the talent to win 8-9, plus an opportunity to leave CUSA and enter the American with a bang and a championship. Go Owls! 
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FAU 05 said

Now that Clark is stepping down as head coach at UAB, this is an opportunity for us to compete for the title. All fellow owls on here make good points. Makes me cringe reliving some bad memories. I’m optimistic going into the season with the recent coaching changes and P5 transfers, hopefully we hit on 2-3 of them. The OLine is solid and deep.  If DL, Anderson and Joyner start hot watch out. Hopefully Orlando implements a good system and the OC calls good games. Kosi going into his 2nd year and building more chemistry with Burton, Wester and have a third receiver step up would allow us to reach that 30 ppg to have a winning season. RBs should be solid with Ford, Scott and the rest of that deep group.  I would be disappointed if we only win 5,6 or 7 games. I believe we have the talent to win 8-9, plus an opportunity to leave CUSA and enter the American with a bang and a championship. Go Owls! 
Posted On: Jun 24th 2022, 3:26 PM #407521



Agree 100% on UAB point and about WRs…I love Burton and think they need to find a legitimate, consistent outside body. Posey is 6-1 and I saw got some spring hype. They moved William Ford (6-4) from TE. I’ll save TE talk/concerns for another thread lol. 

O-line as always intrigues me. Sounds like Bordner the new LT is getting a lot of hype. Nick Weber is a quality center. I assume Kamaar Bell is starting at RG. No idea about LG or RT. I thought Atcavage (73) played well at RT against MTSU last year. I’d like to see him get a chance.

Less than 64 days away!

Twitter: @JakeElman97
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