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FAU Football Win Probabilities

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FAU Football Win Probabilities


The above image represents the "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, October 8th, 2021.

As we move past contests they will obviously adjust, and will update the percentages accordingly herein.

As it stands for now, the below can be considered reasonable observations:

1. Best case outcome (exceeding "odds") is a 10-2 regular season finish.

2. Expected outcome (with "odds" alignment) is an 8-4 regular season finish.

3. Less than expected outcome (discounting "odds") is a 7-5 regular season finish.

4. Much less than expected outcome (discounting "odds" heavily) is a 6 win or less regular season finish.


Personal Projection:

Sticking with an 8-4 finish, which is exactly what I said to start the year, while defying Vegas' forecast +1:

2021 Vegas C-USA Championship, Total Wins, & Conference Wins Forecast for FAU Football - FAU Owl's Nest

However, if they win more will obviously be the first eat crow, and CELEBRATE!



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Here are the updated "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, October 15th, 2021.

I've also added the outcome of the UAB game to the right of the forecast percentage, and will do so with each subsequent update.

Of note in this update, the Marshall contest went up 1.5% in favor of FAU while the rest of the games saw a decrease of 3-6%.

And the projected record is now at 7-5, versus 8-4 at the time of the original posting.



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Here are the updated "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, October 22nd, 2021.

Of note in this update, and given the spanking the Owls put on Charlotte, all contest percentages have gone up. However, WKU only saw a slight increase in comparison and remains the "expected" loss.

Overall, projected record is now at 8-4, and realigned with the original posting mark.



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Here are the updated "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, October 31st, 2021.

Of note in this update, and given the close contest against UTEP, all probabilities have shifted away from the Owls.

Marshall and WKU see nearly 10 point swings with FAU moderate underdogs.

Overall, projected record is now at back to 7-5, and realigned with Vegas initial forecast prior to season start.



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If we beat WKU and Marshall the division is ours but we probably get stomped against UTSA. Imo, I think we’re going to blow one of those games. With how sloppy we’ve played all year just feels like we’re due 
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I am surprised that Marshall are only -1 favorite in this game.
They lead the all time series 7-1.
Marshall are playing very well.
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FAU Fan said

I am surprised that Marshall are only -1 favorite in this game.
They lead the all time series 7-1.
Marshall are playing very well.

Posted On: Nov 1st 2021, 6:42 AM #404569
But against who? ODU (OT!), N. Texas and FIU…….(5-19 combined!).

We just beat a UTEP team with more wins on its own (6-1 at the time). We led that team 28-10 for 3 1/2 qtrs. then played and Coached a God awful last 6 minutes allowing it to be close! NO EXCUSES FOR THAT but I do give credit to UTEP for not quitting!!!
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GeorgiaOwl said

FAU Fan said

I am surprised that Marshall are only -1 favorite in this game.
They lead the all time series 7-1.
Marshall are playing very well.

Posted On: Nov 1st 2021, 6:42 AM #404569
But against who? ODU (OT!), N. Texas and FIU…….(5-19 combined!).

We just beat a UTEP team with more wins on its own (6-1 at the time). We led that team 28-10 for 3 1/2 qtrs. then played and Coached a God awful last 6 minutes allowing it to be close! NO EXCUSES FOR THAT but I do give credit to UTEP for not quitting!!!
Posted On: Nov 1st 2021, 7:25 AM #404570

Hope you are correct, but they do score a lot of points.
38+ points scored in 5 of 8 games played.
49 points twice and 44 points once.
We will need to play mistake free football to stay in this game.
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Not sure what the deal is with Marshall, FAU has had better recruiting classes since we moved to C-USA.
FAU can win this game.
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NITE-OWL said

Not sure what the deal is with Marshall, FAU has had better recruiting classes since we moved to C-USA.
FAU can win this game.
Posted On: Nov 1st 2021, 1:59 PM #404573

Talent is about equal.

We are about to find out how well we are coached…

Teambeer is the most knowledgeable FAU sports fan I know, way smarter than me.
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