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FAU Football Win Probabilities

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Here are the updated "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, November 7th, 2021.

Of note in this update, and given the loss to Marshall where the line was missed by 13.5 points, all probabilities have shifted away from the Owls - as was the case last weekend after the line was heavily missed against UTEP (by +11) as well.

The WKU contest sees a -7.6% shift away from FAU, while nearly a -2% swing is observed @ ODU and a -4.6% swing is observed vs MTSU.

Overall, projected record is now slightly below Vegas' initial forecast prior to season start of 7-5 and sits at 6.7-5.3. Obviously, this isn't achievable, but it does illustrate a concerning realignment in confidence.

Bowl eligibility takes a swipe as well, decreasing from a season long 100% to that of 92.6% as of right now.

BTW, Vegas 4-0 over the last 4 games straight up against the line since I started this thread, and 8-0 on the year.



Please don't shoot the messenger, as I am going to probably have to eat crow, having gone with 8-4 initially.

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7-5 gets us into a bowl game and Willie another year at least. Now hopefully Willie can get the proverbial monkey off his back and get a bowl win as I believe he is 0-3 or 0-4 all time in bowl games
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Good news is NONE of the 3 remaining teams on schedule have a good or even decent D. WKU has a great O so I dont know if we can keep up with them points wise. 2 0f 3 very doable!
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Here are the updated "odds" of a winning outcome for each of the Owls' remaining contests as of today, November 18th, 2021.

Of note in this update, and given the loss to ODU, the remaining two contest's probabilities have once again shifted away from the Owls.

The WKU contest sees another shift away from FAU at nearly -5%, while nearly a -10% swing away vs MTSU.

Overall, projected record now sits at 5.9-6.1.

Bowl eligibility takes another hot as well, decreasing from 92.6% to 70.9%.


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So there’s still a 70% chance we get into a bowl. Could be worse I suppose 
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LawOwl said

So there’s still a 70% chance we get into a bowl. Could be worse I suppose 
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:19 PM #405159

Well, we also had a 70% chance of beating ODB…and that didn't turn out very well…
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At least we’re not playing in 10 year old shoulder pads, sticking around in a sinking ship of a conference and getting our admin called out by our OWN football coach about sabotage. Yea definitely think it could be worse lol
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LawOwl said

At least we’re not playing in 10 year old shoulder pads, sticking around in a sinking ship of a conference and getting our admin called out by our OWN football coach about sabotage. Yea definitely think it could be worse lol
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:28 PM #405162

Or having a Professor who believes Pedophilia is natural and justified….
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cbboarder said

LawOwl said

At least we’re not playing in 10 year old shoulder pads, sticking around in a sinking ship of a conference and getting our admin called out by our OWN football coach about sabotage. Yea definitely think it could be worse lol
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:28 PM #405162

Or having a Professor who believes Pedophilia is natural and justified….
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:57 PM #405163



MAPs!

Twitter: @JakeElman97
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JakeElman said

cbboarder said

LawOwl said

At least we’re not playing in 10 year old shoulder pads, sticking around in a sinking ship of a conference and getting our admin called out by our OWN football coach about sabotage. Yea definitely think it could be worse lol
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:28 PM #405162

Or having a Professor who believes Pedophilia is natural and justified….
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 9:57 PM #405163



MAPs!
Posted On: Nov 18th 2021, 10:19 PM #405164


Wait, what?
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