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2022 C-USA Championship & Total Wins Forecast for FAU Football

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I feel like getting three more wins is basically impossible.
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There has been some movement (mostly positive) since the last post, so updating latest win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of October 11th.

Home games are in Bold:

Losses

  • UAB 25.3% Down
  • WKU 37.2%  Down
  • MTSU 44% Up

Wins

  • Rice 58.8% Even
  • UTEP 69.7% Up
  • FIU 96% Up

Forecasted outcome: 5-7 with a 43.6% (up from 41.4%) chance to become bowl eligible and the Owls are on the road 3-of-6.
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MTSU and UTEP are away games so I'm counting them as Ls. No way we beat WKU/UAB.

I see a best case scenario of 4-8 this season
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Agreed. We’re going to have to find a way to upset UAB or WKU at home to make a serious run at bowl eligibility. This weekend is no cake walk either and I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost. 
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What a difference a tight line win makes? Some significant shifts on the heels of the victory over Rice.

Win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of October 16th. Home games are in Bold:

Losses

  • UAB 31.4% Up
  • WKU 34.9%  Down

Wins

  • MTSU 51.5% Up
  • UTEP 71.3% Up
  • FIU 95.2% Down

Forecasted outcome: 6-6 with a 61.7% (up from 43.6%) chance to become bowl eligible and the Owls are on the road 3-of-5. Strange that the three forecasted wins are all on the road as well.
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And what a difference losing a game you are favored in past the midway point of the season makes.

Obviously not good here.

Win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of October 29th, prior to snap against UAB. Home games are in Bold:

Losses

  • UAB 27.8% Down
  • WKU 28.8% Down
  • MTSU 48.5% Down

Wins

  • FIU 88.7% Down

Forecasted outcome: 4-8 with a 26.7% chance to become bowl eligible. This is down from 61.7% prior to the UTEP loss.
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Don't look now, but the Owls got a big lift after last night's win over UAB, and are now favored again over the Blue Raiders.

Win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of October 30th. Home games are in Bold:

Losses

  • WKU 41.4% Up

Wins

  • FIU 90.3% Down
  • MTSU 52.5% Up

Forecasted outcome: 6-6 with a 67% chance to become bowl eligible.

As FAU is off for Week 10, this will likely change again next weekend depending upon what the above teams do against their opponents.
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Mixed bag for the Owls after last weekend's C-USA action.

MTSU & FIU up, WKU down.


Win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of November 8th. Home game in Bold:

Losses

  • WKU 34.2% Down

Wins

  • FIU 91.2% Up
  • MTSU 57.2% Up

Forecasted outcome: 6-6 with a 66% chance to become bowl eligible.
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Win percentages for all FAU games remaining as of November 13th. Home game in Bold:

Loss

  • WKU 36.3% Up

Win

  • MTSU 63.6% Up

Forecasted outcome: 6-6 with a 75% chance to become bowl eligible.
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Bahamas or Cure bowl? 🤔
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